The CDC has a duty to protect us from diseases, especially deadly ones, and they do their job very well. Were they to mistakenly underestimate the H1N1 flu virus they alone would bear the responsibility, so they have nothing to lose by erring on the side of caution. Furthermore, as a government agency don’t expect anyone in government, especially the President, to contradict them.

Unfortunately, that leads to a very one-sided point of view. Doesn’t someone need to be the voice of moderation, or even contradiction to the CDC? In the past that would have been the media, but not this time around. Okay, so being in the travel industry maybe I need to say a few things. You can take my words with a grain of salt if you prefer.

We just got the latest H1N1 updates from the CDC, the new head of Health and Human Services, Kathleen Sibilius, and Janet Napolitano of the Department of Homeland Security.

Interviewer Chris Wallace asked CDC spokesman Dr. Richard Besser if he would characterize the media’s response to flu reports as overreaction. Besser replied “if the virus had shown other factors that made it more serious, then the reaction would be warranted.” Perfect syntax, Richard, “If, then, would be…”

Then the CDC warned us once again that the virus could come roaring back next fall, as the 1918 Swine Flu pandemic did. This is the CDC’s trump card to keep us all on our feet. They have no way to give us the odds that will happen, however, but they have one case where a swine flu did that, and so we have to assume it is a possibility. Even though the CDC said the current H1N1 does not have the same genetic markers for “sustainability” as the 1918 flu did.

So, what are the chances a flu that currently does not have a certain genetic marker could develop one? Isn’t it a tenet of evolution that mutations are random, and survival is more or less a fortunate accident of nature? In other words, lets not put it in people’s minds that the virus has a will of its own to become more “sustainable.” It might happen, but its a roll of the dice, like growing spots.

Even if it does mutate for sustainability. What is different between 1918 and 2009? Today we have antibiotics, flu vaccines and robust quantities of anti-viral medicines such as Tamiflu which have proven to be very effective to H1N1. Put them all together and what do you have? Well, so far we know this virus has responded pretty well to many medicines they didn’t have back then, enough to make a difference…

Still, all we currently have to study is the existing flu. Besser says H1N1 in its current U.S. form has all the characteristics of a regular seasonal flu. That was a huge statement, in hugely understated terms.

Still pursuing the “are we overreacting theme” Besser was asked whether Fort Worth was right to close 147 Texas schools, leaving 80,000 kids with no place to go for two weeks, due to just one confirmed case of our flu. Besser replied, “If that one case had proven to be more virulent and the flu had spread to more students then it certainly was not an overreaction.”

“If that case had proven (which it didn’t) and it spread (which it didn’t) …

They sent 80,000 kids home instead of one student that never showed symptoms worse than an average flu. And where did he go? Not to the hospital as far as I know. The media has not been given one hospitalization to follow, to show the progression and severity of the disease. How many cases in the U.S. have been hospitalized out of some 230 confirmed cases? Only about 30.

Besser said on Sunday that schools should close if they have a “confirmed” case of H1N1 — But it was just last Tuesday that President Obama said a “suspected” case is enough to close a school.

In this country, after a week of full attention, we now have just 227 confirmed cases of H1N1. We have only 19 deaths in two months from this virus worldwide, all of them contracting the disease in Mexico, and we still have no answer as to why these people died. The CDC has suggested the Mexican form of the virus was much more virulent and there were likely mitigating circumstances such as no access to health care, other weaknesses, etc.

In Mexico, the virus affected mostly older children and young adults. The CDC suspects that older U.S. citizens are already immune to the virus. There have been strains of human, avian and swine flu in this country before, such as in 1976. Why don’t we have a better break down of the ages of people it has affected in the U.S.? Out of 227 confirmed cases, why have only 30 of them been hospitalized? What are the exact criteria for hospitalizing an H1N1 flu victim in this country, or for closing a school? That has not been defined for us by the CDC. In fact, almost nothing about this disease, as it exists in its current form, has been defined for us by the CDC – except the very scary possibility that it will lurk in the shadows until next autumn and return with a murderous vengence. Tuck in your kids and let your imagination run wild, mom!

To me it seems the CDC doesn’t want us to know much of anything. How many specifics do we really have about this disease? Has the CDC really been working on this, are did they go straight to the road show? Every tidbit of scientific evidence I have heard comes out in in convoluted and disjointed dribs and drabs between stern warnings about what might happen next year. Is this science, or the prelude to a horror movie?

We also heard this from the CDC; the health departments in individual states have now received test kits to verifying the flu independently. This explains the big increase in reported cases the last few days, but it will level off quickly at the end of the week because in fact the disease is not spreading much at all any more. There are more confirmed cases, but they are coming from the backlog. Oh, the CDC didn’t actually spell that out? Read between the lines, America.

The CDC further said that from now on they are less concerned about certifying the exact virus in every case(!) They are now only concerned about verifying the virus in serious cases where it is vital to the treatment. In other words, even the CDC is no longer officially verifying and counting cases of H1N1 anymore. Interesting.

The CDC has now confirmed yet another step to actually give us less information about the virus. I am not implying there is any harm in this, just the opposite. It tells me the concern by the CDC about the H1N1 virus has slipped yet another notch towards being just another flu virus. Even the CDC is getting bored.

Is the CDC warning the general public not to travel? No. Both Sebelius and Napolitano said today, “we are not asking people not to travel. People should go on with their normal daily lives.” Then they couched it as “If you are ill or if you are exposed to someone who is ill we ask you not to go into confined public places.”

I’m surprised they didn’t work longer on getting a better double negative for that last piece of advice.

And finally, after being pressed a third time, Dr. Besser said, “we are seeing encouraging signs that H1N1 is no more severe than any regular seasonal flu.” And that may be as close as we get to the CDC saying this is not be the crisis we were being led to believe.

So, what have we learned? We have learned the CDC is very unlikely to characterize ANY reaction to this flu as an overreaction, except one. And we finally heard the CDC say it acts pretty much like any other virus.

The absence of another reaction, that makes complete sense but is of no concern to the CDC, is an even larger unspoken confirmation that the CDC is not all that worried. What about closing the borders with Mexico? The argument that it is like closing the barn door after the horse has escaped is ridiculous. This is a herd of horses.

If they had any real concern about the obviously more virulent form of the virus continuing to escape from Mexico they would at least be monitoring and quarantining a few people at the border. But, have you heard of one person being denied entry to the United States due to exhibiting flu symptoms at any border crossing? I know I haven’t. The Administration won’t even step up illegal border crossing surveillance. Even though a sick person would probably not try to enter the United States through a monitored border crossing.

But, we did hear about an airliner landing in Boston because a woman onboard was sniffling. The CDC did not characterize that as an overreaction either.

All indications are that we should be hearing the CDC say that they are no longer obsessed with H1N1. We should hear them say it’s time to return to normal life. But they haven’t said it and they probably never will.

Yes, the CDC and other public health officials are doing their jobs very, very well.

Related posts:

1. Stand Up for Your Right to Cruise
2. Cruise Lines Venturing Back to Mexico
3. Should You Cancel Your Mexico Cruise?

Another cheap cruise is a 12-day trans-Atlantic journey of Royal Caribbean sailing from Barcelona to Ft. Lauderdale also for just $399 per person. This cruise stops in Cartegena Spain, the Azores Islands and Nassau. Once again, it is just $30 per day per person – barely more than the cruise line pays to feed each passenger each day. These rates do not include taxes or the fuel surcharge (about $10/day) but they do include “port fees” and other non-commissionable fees.

We also noticed several discounts on Carnival Cruises which is holding an October Sale. Anyone can book a 7-day Caribbean cruise as low as $329 per person, but seniors are getting amazing discounts. We see a January 24, 2009 sailing on Carnival Glory for $129 per person if you are age 55 or older. Or $249 per person for the Nov 2 sailing on Carnival Legend out of Tampa.

These rates are the lowest in my memory, not even accounting for inflation or senior dementia, and I have been cruising for 26 years. These prices are comparable to the 1970s. By the way, it does not matter whether you book these directly with the cruise line or your cruise travel agent – the price is always the same.

Here are a few more unbelievable bargains from this week:

Carnival Triumph; 7 days: 299
Norwegian Dream to Bermuda: $299
Norwegian Star to Mexico: 7 days $299
Celebrity Century 10-days in Europe: $799
Disney World and Cruise; 7-day vacation: $923

Other cruise trends we witnessed this week:

The exchange rate between the Dollar and the Euro is always a factor to the cruise industry, more than most businesses. As the dollar gets stronger cruises to Europe make more sense to U.S. cruisers. The cruise fares get lower because the cruise lines get more bang for their buck when it comes to their expenses overseas. The passengers also get benefits when off the ship because they can afford to do more in port.

Shipbuilding gets more affordable because new ships are priced in Euros. However, because shipbuilding contracts are complicated some of the ones negotiated when Euros were higher may be affected adversely, kind of like the feeling a 2006 home buyer gets when he is paying for a house that is worth 25% less than the mortgage.

Cruise News of the Week:

Orient Lines – sold by NCL to entrepreneur Wayne Heller, with cruise industry veteran Bruce Neirenberg as president and now sailing the Marco Polo II, a classic liner-style ship built in 1969 for the German market, just announced it has slashed prices for its 2009 European cruise season. Prices have dropped from $4649 per person to $2999 for a 16-day Baltic cruise including an overnight stay and sightseeing in Berlin. The 11-day Mediterranean cruise has been dropped from $2999 per person to $1799.

Orient is a classic, “old-school” cruise line with two special dining restaurants as well as a main dining room. No extra charge for the specialty dining. The ship is a tiny 25,000-tons and holds 650 passengers. Guest lecturers are featured on exotic itineraries including the Black Sea and South America.

Carnival is returning to the 13-acre, $60 million Carnival-built cruise center on Grand Turk as a scheduled port visit. The island was damaged when Hurricane Ike rolled through but is open once again.

An 800-foot private beach is available, as well as the site’s massive swimming pool. The on-site Margaritaville restaurant and lounge is operating as well as all of the various shops. Numerous shore excursions include Gibbs Key tour, dune buggy rentals, swimming with horses, and fishing and snorkeling expeditions. The previously offered hop on/hop off bus tour is currently operating as a post-hurricane island tour. Guests are charged a nominal fee for the tour and provided with a pledge card should they wish to donate to the United Way’s Grand Turk hurricane relief fund.

Princess Cruises’ Crown Princess is the next cruise ship to call at the Grand Turk Cruise Center on Oct. 10.

Cruise Industry-related publication Lloyd’s list (Lloyds of London) reports that Akers shipyard of France has ordered a work stoppage on one of the two new F3 class of cruise ships for Norwegian Cruise Lines. Two of these ships are currently being built with one scheduled for 2010 delivery and the other for 2011. These ships come in at 150,000-tons and carry 4200 passenger berths.

The ships are highly unusual in design – with no main dining room or theater, but with several smaller dining and entertainment venues. They are meant to carry the concept of NCL’s “Free-style” cruising to the next level. Industry publication Cruise Week is reporting “Several sources tell Cruise Week that the cost of the F3 has spiralled” and they say that Lloyds confirms that statement.

Part of the dilemma is whether the project can be sold to another cruise line. The unusual design is proprietary to the NCL free-style concept. One of the ships may already be too far along to switch gears. The other ship is believed to be the one that work stoppage has occured on – before it gets so far along other cruise lines would consider it unusable.

As noted above, the changes in Dollar/Euro exchange rate might also have something to do with this. or it could be that Apollo is having problems getting credit to finish both ships with a total cost well over $1 billion.

Perhaps they should just ask the U.S. Government for the money? But not if they are required to locate it in Hawaii with a U.S. crew! (BTW: is you don’t get that joke you are not yet a serious cruiser).

In news similar to the Grand Turk item above, Carnival’s pier at Puerta Maya in Cozumel, Mexico – closed since being damaged by Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – will officially re-open when the 2,052-passenger Carnival Ecstasy and 2,056-passenger Carnival Fantasy visit the facility on Thursday, Oct. 16.

Nine-acres with 42 shops offering apparel, fine jewelry, artwork and restaurants will also re-open. A new four-acre transportation hub will handle dozens of taxis, tour buses and four rental car facilities.

On-site dining options include the Tres Amigos Bar, a new theme restaurant inspired by the 1986 hit movie starring Steve Martin, Chevy Chase and Martin Short. Also featured is Pancho’s Backyard as well as Fat Tuesday, a waterfront bar offering frozen drinks and light snacks, along with a DJ and dance floor.

Disney announced it will send the 2,700-passenger Disney Magic cruise ship overseas for five months in 2010 for a series of sailings that will take it from Russia to Northern Africa. The April-through-September schedule will mark the longest stretch a Disney cruise ship has ever spent away from its home port at Port Canaveral.

Disney’s schedule includes eight 10 and 11-night tours through the Mediterranean and the company’s first sailings in Northern Europe with four 12-night voyages that will take the ship from Dover, England, to St. Petersburg, Russia, with stops in half a dozen other countries.

In addition, the Disney Wonder will offer four and five-night voyages out of Port Canaveral with new stops in Key West and an extra stop at Castaway Cay, Disney’s private island in the Bahamas.

The “World’s Largest Cruise Night” is a one-time chance to get valuable cruise bargains from participating cruise lines. Here is a preliminary list of offers from participating cruise lines only available through CLIA member travel agencies:

• Disney Cruise Line: Onboard credits of up to $50 on cruises and land & sea packages through December 13, 2009 (booking window: October 16 – November 15)
• Carnival Cruise Lines: Complimentary upgrades on all bookings made October 16
• Celebrity Cruises: Onboard credits up to $200 per stateroom based on cruise length for seven Celebrity ships with sailings between January 1 and June 30, 2009, plus a 50 percent reduced deposit (booking window: October 16 – 18)
• Costa Cruises: $50 per person onboard credit (up to $100 per stateroom) on Caribbean 2008/2009 and Winter Europe 2009 sailings (booking window: October 16 – October 21)
• Crystal Cruises: $100 per person discounts on most 2008 sailings for bookings made during WLCN (booking window: October 14 – November 7)
• Cunard Line: Onboard credits up to $300 and a waiver of deposit for second guest, for bookings on 2008 Holiday voyages and 2009 voyages aboard Queen Mary 2 and Queen Victoria.
• Holland America Line: Special fares to be communicated to travel agents and reduced deposits up to $300 for bookings made during WLCN (booking window: October 15-17)
• MSC Cruises: Special prices on a variety of sailings in the Caribbean and Europe with rates as low as $399 for a seven-day Caribbean cruise, plus shipboard credits of up to $200 (booking window: October 16 – November 3)
• Norwegian Cruise Line: Double onboard credits up to $500, plus reduced deposit on sailings of five days or more (booking window: October 15 – 23)
• Princess Cruises: Reduced deposit of $100, plus a Princess coupon booklet with more than $120 in onboard discounts Regent Seven Seas Cruises: $100 per person shipboard credit on departures of seven nights or longer (booking window: October 16 – November 16)
• Royal Caribbean International: Up to $200 off per person on select cruises and cruise dates for bookings made on October 16 Uniworld Grand River Cruises: $100 savings per person on all 2009 cruises if purchased through an agent having a cruise night on October 16 (booking window: October 16 – 23)
• Windstar Cruises: $50 in shipboard credits per person (maximum $100 per stateroom) on any Wind Spirit sailing between January 31 and March 28, 2009 and any Wind Surf sailing between January 4 and March 15, 2009 (booking window: October 16-November 9)

For specific details and conditions of each offer, contact a participating CLIA member travel agency. For more information about World’s Largest Cruise Night and an event near you, please visit http://www.cruising.org/ to find a CLIA travel agency, Certified Cruise Counsellor or Luxury Cruise Specialist near you.

Related posts:

1. Cruise News & Rumor Update
2. Cruising Over The Holidays, Good or Bad?
3. Disney – A Variety of New Destinations