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Old August 29th, 2008, 03:24 PM
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 291800
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV ALMOST A HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 425 MILES
...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Lisa
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