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Old September 11th, 2008, 03:16 PM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 111755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...
710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Lisa
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