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Old September 13th, 2008, 01:02 AM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 130459
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE APPROACHING GALVESTON ISLAND...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 AM CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1200 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME
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Lisa
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