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Old October 15th, 2008, 01:00 AM
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 150257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A
TROPICAL WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE
CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY DEVIATION TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER
HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.2 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK
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Lisa
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