From yesterday's Blog:
Carnival Corp. announced fuel supplement rebates if the price of oil is $70 or less for 25 days in a row. It has been 12 days. To be exact, the company said you will get a full refund on your fuel supplement payment if the price of oil is $70 or less for 25 days in a row at the 2:30 p.m. close of business on each of the 25 consecutive trading days ending five trading days prior to the your cruise departure date.
OK, that is complicated, but according to my charts the price of light crude closed below $70 on November 5 and has stayed below that price ever since. This means that 12 trading days have passed with the price below $70/barrel.
Since the price is now at $49.62/barrel, I contacted Carnival to see if they are tracking this and they confirmed that if the price stays below $70 then they will start giving discounts starting with the December 18 cruise sail dates. By the way, I originally saw that the price closed below 70 on Oct 21, which would have meant the cutoff date was Dec. 1st. But it did close above 70 for ONE DAY on November 4 setting the deadline back by three weeks - because weekends are not counted.
This is a significant onboard credit, equal to the fuel supplement they charged these customers. The supplement was $10 per person per day. In other words, the onboard credit should equal $140 per couple for every 7-day cruise.
Furthermore, while Carnival has suspended the fuel supplement for cruises departing in 2010, they are still charging it for all cruise sold that sail in 2009. However, based on the current economic situation it appears to me a reasonably safe bet that a cruise you book now for 2009 will very likely qualify for the onboard credit.
In other words, while you will still have to pay the fuel supplement for any 2009 cruise, there is a very good chance you will get it back in the form of an onboard credit on the day you cruise. Remember, the price of oil has dropped below $50/barrel for the first time today, actually trading at $49.62 as I write this. That means it has dropped about 27% since the day it first dipped below $70 barrel. Nothing in this economy has gone UP 27% in the last few months, so it is pretty good bet you will get your rebate.
If you don’t it probably means our economy has improved significantly, and that is also good news. Either way you win. Naturally, the only reason why this shouldn’t remain true for an extended period of time will be if the price of oil creeps back up, or if (Heaven forbid) somekind of cosmic event should push the price of oil up overnight.
This is great news for cruisers - you can effectively take away the fuel supplement from the total cost for any cruise sailing after December 18 st, although you will pay it, you will get it back in the form of an onboard credit.
This will apply to all Carnival Corp cruise lines: Carnival, Holland America, Princess, Cunard, Seabourn and Costa.
Royal Caribbean has a schedule to check quarterly, the first date to check is December 18. If the price of oil is under $65/barrel (it is now $49) THEN they will rebate the fuel surcharges beginning in january.