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Old October 19th, 2009, 03:38 PM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191754
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS RICK WEAKER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...550 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RICK COULD
STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE RICK FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 111.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Lisa
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