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Old October 20th, 2009, 02:08 AM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 200249
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...WATCHES ADJUSTED FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM LA
PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF AGUA
BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND NORTH OF LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY FOR THE
COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 290
MILES...465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
55 MILES... 90 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...66 KM/HR...WITH A
GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SOCORRO
ISLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.1N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
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Lisa
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