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Old November 8th, 2009, 04:09 AM
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 080711
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
115 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...175
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...PASSING CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IDA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 115 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.2N 85.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
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Lisa
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