Thread: Atlantic - Earl
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Old August 29th, 2010, 01:59 AM
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Statement as of 2:00 am AST on August 29, 2010

...Earl moving westward toward the Leeward Islands...

summary of 200 am AST...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...16.7n 56.2wabout 465 mi...750 km ESE of the northern Leeward Islandsmaximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/hrpresent movement...W or 280 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/hrminimum central pressure...989 mb...29.21 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Anguilla* Saint Martin and Saint barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* St. Maarten...Saba...St. Eustatius* British Virgin Islands* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* St. Maarten...Saba...St. Eustatius
a Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence oftropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outsidepreparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect lifeand property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am AST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Earl waslocated near latitude 16.7 north...longitude 56.2 West. Earl ismoving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and this generalmotion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forwardspeed later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expectedSunday night and Monday. On the forecast track...the center ofEarl would pass near or over the northern Leeward Islands Sundaynight or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...andEarl is expected to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.21 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...hurricane conditions are expected over the northern LeewardIslands by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions may spread over theVirgin Islands and Puerto Rico Monday and Monday night.
Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels 1 to 3 feet abovenormal tide levels in the warning area...and be accompanied by largeand dangerous battering waves.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern Leeward Islands...withpossible maximum isolated amounts of 8 inches.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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