Thread: Atlantic - Earl
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Old August 30th, 2010, 01:27 AM
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Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 29, 2010

...Earl strengthens as it approaches the northernmost LeewardIslands...

summary of 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...information-----------------------------------------------location...17.9n 61.1wabout 50 mi...80 km ENE of Barbudaabout 130 mi...215 km E of St. Martinmaximum sustained winds...100 mph...160 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hrminimum central pressure...971 mb...28.67 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Anguilla* Saint Martin and Saint barthelemy* St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius* British Virgin Islands
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques
hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warningarea...in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparationsto protect life and property should have already been completed.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in thiscase within the next 24 to 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 17.9 north...longitude 61.1 West. Earl is movingtoward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and this generalmotion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turntoward the northwest is expected by early Tuesday. On the forecasttrack...the center of Earl will pass near or over the northernmostLeeward Islands late tonight and early Monday...and near theBritish Virgin Islands by late Monday.
Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate thatmaximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160km/hr...with higher gusts. Earl is a category two hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson wind scale. Further strengthening is forecast...andEarl is expected to become a major hurricane by late Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175miles...280 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Forcehurricane hunters is 971 mb...28.67 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm conditions are about to spread into portionsof the Hurricane Warning area...and hurricane conditions areexpected to spread into the Hurricane Warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the U.S.Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday...with hurricaneconditions possible Monday night.
Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2to 4 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas ofonshore wind within the Hurricane Warning area...and 1 to 3 feet inthe Tropical Storm Warning area. The surge will be accompanied bylarge and dangerous battering waves.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern Leeward Islands...withpossible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rain accumulationsof 4 to 6 inches are expected over Puerto Rico...with isolatedmaximum amounts of 12 inches possible over higher elevations. Theserains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory-------------next intermediate advisory...200 am AST.Next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
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