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Old September 15th, 2010, 04:08 AM
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Default Caribbean - Karl

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 15, 2010

...Karl headed for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...18.6n 86.0wabout 150 mi...245 km E of Chetumal Mexicomaximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hrminimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal at theMexico/Belize border northward to Cabo Catoche
a tropical storm watch in in effect for...* the coast of northern Belize from Belize City to the Mexico/Belizeborder
a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning this case within 24hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch this case within 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area.....Please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Karl waslocated near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 86.0 west. Karl ismoving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. Thisgeneral motion is expected to continue with some decrease inforward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecasttrack...the center of Karl will move over the Yucatan Peninsulalater today...and move into the southwestern Gulf of MexicoWednesday night or Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is possible before the center of Karl reachesthe Yucatan Peninsula...with weakening expected after landfall.Restrengthening is forecast on Thursday after Karl moves over thesouthwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach thecoast within the warning area later this morning.
Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce some coastalflooding near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large anddamaging waves.
Rainfall...Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3to 5 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...and northernGuatemala...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Pasch
Carnival Breeze with Ray B and Aerogirl 5/4/14!
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