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Old September 16th, 2010, 02:47 AM
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Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 16, 2010

...Karl moving over the Bay of Campeche...expected to strengthen...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.7n 91.2wabout 50 mi...75 km WSW of Campeche Mexicoabout 410 mi...660 km ESE of Tuxpan Mexicomaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hrminimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico from La Cruz southward to barra de nautla
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Ciudad del Carmennorthward to Celestun
a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours beforethe anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds...Conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...in this case within 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Karl waslocated near latitude 19.7 north...longitude 91.2 west. Karl ismoving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A generalwestward or west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease inforward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On theforecast track...Karl will move across the southern Gulf of Mexicoand approach the coast of the state of Veracruz within theHurricane Watch area by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with highergusts. The highest winds are occurring near the center over waterwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Strengthening is expected over thenext couple of days...and Karl is forecast to become a hurricane byFriday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...Mainly to the west of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm force winds in gusts are expected tooccur over a small area of the northwestern Yucatan Peninsulaovernight...but should gradually decrease this morning. Within theHurricane Watch area...tropical storm conditions are possible byearly Friday...with hurricane conditions possible by late Friday.
Rainfall...Karl is expected to produce additional rainfallaccumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the western portion of theYucatan Peninsula...and portions of the state of Tabasco andnorthern Guatemala...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected along thecoast of Mexico within the Hurricane Watch area...with isolatedamounts of 15 inches possible in the mountains. These rains couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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Lisa
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