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Old September 17th, 2010, 02:26 AM
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Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 17, 2010

...Karl a little stronger...tropical storm conditions nearing thecoast in the Hurricane Warning area...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.7n 94.8wabout 95 mi...155 km ENE of Veracruz Mexicoabout 190 mi...305 km ESE of Tuxpan Mexicomaximum sustained winds...105 mph...165 km/hrpresent movement...W or 270 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hrminimum central pressure...967 mb...28.56 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz* the coast of Mexico south of Veracruz to Punta el Lagarto
for storm information specific to your area...please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Karl was locatednear latitude 19.7 north...longitude 94.8 west. Karl is movingtoward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion isexpected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On theforecast track...the core of hurricane will make landfall on thecoast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area late Friday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicatethat maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph... 165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Karl is a category two hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengtheningis expected...and Karl could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105miles...165 km. A joint U.S. EPA and Mexican government observingstation on sacrifice island near Veracruz recently reported asustained wind of 36 mph...58 km/hr...and a gust to 41 mph...66km/hr.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Forcehurricane hunter aircraft was 967 mb...28.56 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels byas much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the immediatecoast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large anddestructive waves.
Wind...within the Hurricane Warning area...tropical storm conditionsare expected to begin in the next few hours...with hurricaneconditions expected to begin during the day on Friday.
Rainfall...Karl is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5to 10 inches across the central and southern Mexican Gulf Coastregion...with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in theinterior mountains. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mud slides.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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Lisa
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