You are inferring I am making some conclusions I am not making. I said the small ships moved out after the H1N1 scare, which is true, but I did not say it was solely because of the H1N1 scare.
Some of the shorter cruises, RCLs out of Los Angeles, were ended sooner than some of the later ones like Radiance and the Carnival fantasy-class ships out of San Diego - and regardless, it is impossible to separate demand and H1N1 as reasons for the move. H1N1 contributed heavily to lower demand (along with the economy and violence on the border). It was not my intention to describe the specific reasons why demand dropped, it was just to show that when you get a market right-sized prices rebound.
I am surprised they rebounded, and it may not last, but it is a pretty robust price rebound as of now.
NCL is still in the market with 7-day cruises, by the way. Norwegian Star in 2010 and Norwegian Pearl in 2011.
I agree with you on Disney - it is a separate market.
As to whether there were any cruises to Mexico at $199, you are probably right, but there were ships sailing from the west coast at that price, and others to Mexico at close to it.
You are also technically correct on cabins aboard Mariner - but they are at the point where the deep discounts to full the ship are gone. When prices on a ship go from lower to higher towards within a handful of weeks of the sailing date it is usually because the ship is nearly full. I personally consider that ship "sold out" as I would not book it. You only pay extra to fly or cruise someplace if you need to leave on a specific date. But I will concede this - I should have considered that Mariner was gaining the benefits of higher prices just like every other ship is.
Two months ago the ship was prices like inside:$299, outside:$399, balcony:$459, suite:$699... now it is... (November dates)
$709.00 $769.00 $959.00 $1,188.00
$545.00 $656.00 $929.00 $1,130.00
$749.00 $849.00 $1,069. $1,452.00
$479.00 $559.00 $722.00 $1,105.00
THank you for your comments - you make some good points.