Having said that, I'll add that I usually book the second seating for dinner, where I have observed a fairly even mix (somewhere between 60%/40% and 40%/60%) between suits and "black tie" outfits on the "formal" evenings. I can't speak to the mix between suits and "black tie" is different at first seating from personal experience,
Norm... I appreciate the explanation, and I'll at least agree that your estimates could be at least closer to reality
Even if you're correct, I don't expect it to last as times (and dress) are still changing. Even the luxury lines have begun to minimize dress expectations, with the exception of Cystal Cruises.
My blog tomorrow (appearing on the home page) is all about this topic.