Keep in mind the captain is not up on the bridge making decisions in isolation. They are up there with a navigation team and are often in contact with their home offices - Miami in this case - home of the NOAA hurricane center.
Also, tropical storms can move much quicker than a ship, and as much has forecasters would like to tell you where they (the storms) are going to go, the storms go where they will. This is why many Floridians don't get twitchy until the last minute. They have seen many storms that were supposed to hit but went the other way at the last minute.
All I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by; John Masefield
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