Originally Posted by Paul Motter
AR - what you have is a theory, like me and everybody else. I see no reason for you to act as if you know anything that I don't know as if I am not informed just because the (stock) market (singular is perfectly acceptable) is doing well right now.
If you are so well-informed - where is the market going next? Yeah - that's what I thought.
There is nothing easier than personally attacking someone for their prior opinions after events have changed - but its meaningless. It only shows one thing, that you are somehow oddly consumed with a desire to make light of me, personally.
But that isn't in the spirit of how we run these boards my friend.
Ya know Paul, I don't mind a bit that you disagree with me or anybody else about anything. But you're just not reading.
1. I have no bloody idea
where the markets (they are plural, sorry) are going next and I have said so repeatedly, including at least twice in this very string. Only a fool would say he knows. The difference between us is that not knowing is keeping you out of the markets and not knowing is keeping me in, but for the long term (like five decades and counting), and widely diversified. I just looked at the pie chart and we are currently in 15 different asset classes, not all of them stock, in different markets around the world. This is why I refer to markets in the plural, and I truly believe that those who insist on the singular generally have a far too narrow view of investing. One of the cornerstones of my "theory" is "no big bets." That goes not only for individual investments but for asset classes as well.
2. I got on you not because your prediction was wrong, but because it was so wildly, erroneously reasoned. Remember, on the very day you wrote the OP, I said your reasoning and your math were. . .what shall we say?. . .suspect. And this would be true no matter what the markets did between then and now.
3. You say I'm working from a theory that's no better than anybody else's. I guess it just depends on how you measure such things. I've plotted my theory (which has never changed) on a graph over those five decades, and I believe the results speak for themselves. But you'll just have to take my word for that. . .or not. I don't really care.