As I mentioned in your other post, both the Eastern and Western Caribbean are equally as prone to hurricanes. The Southern Caribbean is not as vulnerable to hurricanes.
It's really a personal choice, but I wouldn't let the possibility of bad weather dictate when you go. You could encounter bad weather any time (rain, wind, rough seas) not just during hurricane season.
Based on the two itineraries, personally I would prefer the Western one. But while I love Roatan, I'm definitely not a fan of Mahogany Bay! You can read the reviews about it. I much prefer to do non-Carnival corp cruises to Roatan because of where they dock. I'm also definitely not a fan of shore excursions offered by Carnival at Mahogany Bay. Had a friend of mine who lived there and he gave me information about the area - much better to do independent tours there or do you own thing.