Thread: The Next Wave
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Old October 12th, 2001, 08:08 PM
Frank Braiden
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Default The Next Wave

Day Jim,

Leave it up to you where/if this gets posted

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With events as they are we must start to ask the question 'What must the cruise industry do to survive"? Cruise is one of those items that appears to be cashed up and rock solid BUT as has recently been shown this is not necessarily the case. From the late 70s cruise was constructed on the fly/cruise concept, a basis that now has the potential to make them very wobbly.

A fact of life is that many new builds cost around half a billion dollars each and have a useful life expectancy of 25 years, if lucky. Even after construction, the maintenance and operations of these ships is enormous, as someone who used to pay many of these bills, I have an idea just how severe they would now be.

So, a downturn of even 15/20% in pax would make the industry look a extremely shaky, anything higher than this and we could expect to see some drastic changes and I am not referring to ones for the better. Plus we must look at how many ships are under contract or construction, which for major units is around 30. To justify the spending of a further 14 billion you would need to be on very firm ground.

It would be logical to see ships again form liner voyages, long haul transport between continents, to compliment cruise operations. Unfortunately cruise lines have grown away from the true liner voyage operation and I doubt that they could quickly start thinking outside their normal practices.

Perhaps Cruisemates could put together a think tank, it would be logical if a group so dedicated to cruise could now start to have some input into assisting the industry they love. I am sure there are enough of you over there to put a few brains into action.

For what it's worth

Have a ripper day

Frank
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