The more I think about this the more I find the cigarette thoery implausable.
I sailed on the sister ship the CB and had a balcony and IIRC I cant think of one thing that was combustable on the balcony that wasnt passenger brought.
IIRC The floor was covered in a plastic mat and the chairs and table were the plastic kind you get for you patio for like $15 at Home Depot.
If a fire on the balcony managed to ignite those plastic things there would a lot of black smoke which would account for all the smoke damage on the outside.
The only way I can see this happening is through a complete freak of events where someone tossed a cigarette and it landed on a balcony where someone was drying beach towels or swimsuits AND that cabin also had its balcony door open which allowed the fire to spread to the interior of the cabin.
I cant see this happening without an oben balcony door somewhere either at or near the place of the initial fire. There is just nothing on the balcony to burn and no way that a fire could become intense enough to impinge into a cabin with its baclony door closed. Inside the cabin is the only place that would have enough fuel load to cause a significant fire.
Lets not get all hysterical here and start walking smokers off the plank.
CCL Inspiration 09
RCCL Explorer of the Seas Eastern 09
CCL Miracle Southern '08
RCCL Enchantment of the Seas Western '07
PCL Caribbean Princess Eastern '05
RCCL Explorer of the Seas Western '05
RCCL Explorer of the Seas Eastern '04
CCL Destiny Southern '01
CCL Sensation Eastern '94
CCL Ecstacy Western '92
CCL Jubilee Eastern '90