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Old August 31st, 2006, 02:33 PM
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WTPZ31 KNHC 311755
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO
CORRIENTES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN
BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
...100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLAS MARIAS.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND APPROACH CABO
SAN LUCAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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Lisa
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