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Old September 2nd, 2006, 03:00 PM
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 021741
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...JOHN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO
GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
INTERACTS WITH LAND.

JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.6 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Lisa
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