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  #1 (permalink)  
Old February 16th, 2008, 07:23 AM
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Default What impact will economic recession have on cruise prices?

I have some friends who work as economists at banks and they tell me that America is going very soon into the deep economic recession more similar to the one in the early 1980s. Many of the people who are working today have not experienced anything like what is coming and may keep spending money on things they do not need and will be shocked when the jobs dry up and the bank accounts empty.

I wonder what impact this deep economic recession will have on the cruise industry. Will they lower prices significantly due to low demand? Or will the ships make up for America's not be able to cruise with people from Europe and other places with a better economy.

I am expecting a serious economic slide and a significant impact on the cruise industry.
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Old February 16th, 2008, 08:43 AM
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Default Re: What impact will economic recession have on cruise price

Quote:
Originally Posted by conversationist
I have some friends who work as economists at banks and they tell me that America is going very soon into the deep economic recession more similar to the one in the early 1980s. Many of the people who are working today have not experienced anything like what is coming and may keep spending money on things they do not need and will be shocked when the jobs dry up and the bank accounts empty.

I wonder what impact this deep economic recession will have on the cruise industry. Will they lower prices significantly due to low demand? Or will the ships make up for America's not be able to cruise with people from Europe and other places with a better economy.

I am expecting a serious economic slide and a significant impact on the cruise industry.
LOOKS like that's where we're headed remember having to get gas on certain days jobs were not available ! It may be worse this time .
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Old February 16th, 2008, 11:46 AM
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Default Re: What impact will economic recession have on cruise price

For a change I like your GLOOMY outlook OP, let there be a recession , maybe the cruiselines will have a hard time filling up all the mega-ships they are building and offer even cheaper last-minute rates. If that is the case, I look forward to cruising more than the 7 cruises we have taken the last 15 months!



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Old February 16th, 2008, 12:08 PM
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They will move the ships to other ports of the world and survive. The Med is hot and now Spain is getting hot. Say the east coast of the USA has 20 ships. Move 8 of the big ones and the lines will easily survive. My humble economic opinion.
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Old February 18th, 2008, 06:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mehawk
They will move the ships to other ports of the world and survive. The Med is hot and now Spain is getting hot. Say the east coast of the USA has 20 ships. Move 8 of the big ones and the lines will easily survive. My humble economic opinion.

The Med is hot??? I agree with you 120% Mike. It's on FIRE. We own a small house on one of the islands there, when we've had it with cruising, that's were we'll retire. The place went from ZERO cruiseships visiting to days when they now have 9 cruiseships in port at a time!!!
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Old February 19th, 2008, 09:49 AM
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Default Re: What impact will economic recession have on cruise price

BTDT and was in Washington state in the '80s when unemployment hit 25% in some outlying lumber economy counties. We had folks doing grapes of wrath trips from the rust bowl to Seattle with just their cars and hope that Boeing was hiring. Boeing was not and we raised money for traveller's aid to sent the desperate folks back home. Prostitution was high with lots of runaway kids and that was the era of the Green River Killer who turned out to be a homegrown psychopath. The job situation was so bad predators were running false employment ads. I recall the local telephone office putting a chain on its employment office door to keep out the traffic. A home bought in '85 fell in value 15% by '87.

So all that said, will this recession run deep? So long as inherited wealth lasts young folks will be alright. However what do you inherit once mom and pop do a reverse equity mortgage? You see the ads on TV every day. Would say down here in Texas we are an insolated island but my compadres are already reining in their spending, a recent precinct walk surfaced many empty homes and homes in deteriorating condition (about 20% of the recent purchases here were speculative so many homes are rentals). Once a certain percentage is reached there goes property values. Remember we plowed down partially built subdivisions here in the late 80's and the unsold listings in San Antonio were the size of a metropolitan phone book.

So what is the cruise industry doing? Seeing lots of ads targeting me, but no compelling discounts. The scent of blood is in the air, but it is not running down the streets. *The outside high margin cabins and the exotic trips requiring 2 one-way flights are the most vulnerable.* That is where the cruiselines should begin to feel the chill. Equity rich oldies will still do Europe, some will take their kiddos and grandkiddos (because they could otherwise not afford the trip). However, traffic to Europe should start to cool. All the new Africa stuff may cool as well since I'm getting a ton of visit Africa pitches (I guess Hollywood made it "in" for a bit - but unlike the stars I'm not shopping for more kiddos ).

Will prices lower? Officially maybe/maybe not. But people will find the agencies that are kicking back, just as the realtors tired to hold the line on commisions, but agencies are kicking back commissions more and more.

When the going gets tough the tough go shopping! Start checking the deep discounting cruise specialists. Would expect the lower tier lines clientel are tapped out and the left coasters are broke (check for Mexican Riviera bargains).

Meanwhile, I hear the nominee for Juno is into bats - looks like Austin with its bat bridge is the new hot topic of conversation as well as Marfa (No Country for Old Men). Welcome to Texas speckers! Have some oil leases to sell you!

*Just an update - 16 days South America Brazil-Chile seeing some HAL offered in coming weeks as low as $999pp - an example of where the price points are sliding now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by conversationist
I have some friends who work as economists at banks and they tell me that America is going very soon into the deep economic recession more similar to the one in the early 1980s. Many of the people who are working today have not experienced anything like what is coming and may keep spending money on things they do not need and will be shocked when the jobs dry up and the bank accounts empty.

I wonder what impact this deep economic recession will have on the cruise industry. Will they lower prices significantly due to low demand? Or will the ships make up for America's not be able to cruise with people from Europe and other places with a better economy.

I am expecting a serious economic slide and a significant impact on the cruise industry.
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Old February 21st, 2008, 08:59 PM
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I just hope that the rest of the worlds economy doesn't go down just because your economy goes into recession. Other nations may have stable, above avera, or booming ecomomies, but for some reason when the US economy goes down you expect us to go wth them. I certainly hope the Canadian economy stays stable and grows. We are losing manufacturing jobs, but you are losing more than we are to plants in Asia and Central America where wages are less than 50% of what is paid here, and the people there wouldn't complain about the job because they'd have it good!

I live in a oil/gas rich province and we are doing very well economy-wise. I hope we stay that way and our dollar goes up and up again...I want to cruise for less instead of more when it comes to exchange rate!!!!
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Old February 22nd, 2008, 09:56 AM
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Hope all y'all aren't going to put a fence up if we start crossing your border looking for work. I'd go in a minute to be paid in hard Canadian cash instead of worthless American dollars. BTW, my 12 year old is not impressed with our government's cash giveaway answer to the economy. He says it will just drive inflation up. Bright lad!

Not sure as we are going into a recession - think we arrived. In Texas our outlying far commute suburban homes are starting to go into foreclosure. Since y'all in Alberta are more correlated to the Texas economy than to the economy of the lesser 49, look to the furthest homes in the belts around your cities for your first signs of economic distress.

Quote:
Originally Posted by misguidedangel
I just hope that the rest of the worlds economy doesn't go down just because your economy goes into recession. Other nations may have stable, above avera, or booming ecomomies, but for some reason when the US economy goes down you expect us to go wth them. I certainly hope the Canadian economy stays stable and grows. We are losing manufacturing jobs, but you are losing more than we are to plants in Asia and Central America where wages are less than 50% of what is paid here, and the people there wouldn't complain about the job because they'd have it good!

I live in a oil/gas rich province and we are doing very well economy-wise. I hope we stay that way and our dollar goes up and up again...I want to cruise for less instead of more when it comes to exchange rate!!!!
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Old February 24th, 2008, 12:14 AM
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As long as we are prevented from exploring our oil deposits we will be at the whim of any oil rich despot or rogue nation around. The rapidly expanding China-India axis will gobble up the lion's share while we go begging. The fuel surcharges on cruises will probably increase unless the ships leave in great numbers, while our government gets larger and more inefficient necessitating larger and larger tax increases from fewer and fewer people.
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Old February 26th, 2008, 04:14 PM
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Old February 27th, 2008, 12:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mehawk
They will move the ships to other ports of the world and survive. The Med is hot and now Spain is getting hot. Say the east coast of the USA has 20 ships. Move 8 of the big ones and the lines will easily survive. My humble economic opinion.

I couldn't agree with your observation more! And, I also believe that the cruise lines will offer deals to entice people too. Some economies; especially Florida's is very dependent upon tourism. They'll offer deals and work with the states dept. of tourism to keep those dollars coming in.
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Old February 27th, 2008, 01:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elfster
Quote:
Originally Posted by mehawk
They will move the ships to other ports of the world and survive. The Med is hot and now Spain is getting hot. Say the east coast of the USA has 20 ships. Move 8 of the big ones and the lines will easily survive. My humble economic opinion.

I couldn't agree with your observation more! And, I also believe that the cruise lines will offer deals to entice people too. Some economies; especially Florida's is very dependent upon tourism. They'll offer deals and work with the states dept. of tourism to keep those dollars coming in.
That is true. Look at the rates of the Florida cruises already. They are on average (I use the word average loosely here so trolls leave me alone) $100+ or more less expensive than the same amount of days and cabin on the ships out of Galveston.
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Old March 2nd, 2008, 01:08 PM
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WHAT RECESSION!! Last week at a travel show it was so busy crowded I could not believe it.. people just pouring in.. The cruise lines had definetely cut down on display space and cruise employees manning the booths. At Celebrity a cabin in the category I searched for was practically non-existent..only after after a diligent travel agent find a block of cabins being held by somebody else and one not having a deposit where we able to put a deposit down.. We just returned from a 14 day t/a on the Galaxy and the price was more than 50% more than we paid for this upcoming cruise in September. I guess I'll cut down on other things, but I want this cruise..lol
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Old March 2nd, 2008, 10:35 PM
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None

The economies outside the US are booming. Here in Canada we aren't expecting a recession. We now trade more with Asia & Europe than the USA. The 80's if the US got sniffle the Canadins got a cold. Now if the US gets a cold the Canadians are laughing with joy. Also the big cause of a recession will be the drop in the US Dollar.
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Old March 3rd, 2008, 09:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doopydozer
None

The economies outside the US are booming. Here in Canada we aren't expecting a recession. We now trade more with Asia & Europe than the USA. The 80's if the US got sniffle the Canadins got a cold. Now if the US gets a cold the Canadians are laughing with joy. Also the big cause of a recession will be the drop in the US Dollar.
From Reuters:

Quote:
News that Canada's economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter pushed the dollar up 0.6 percent against the Canadian dollar to C$0.9898.

Data showed Canada's annualized gross domestic product growth was 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Markets expected Canada's GDP to show growth of 1.1 percent.
From Thomson Financial:

Quote:
Canada Dec GDP down 0.7 pct month-on-month after 0.1 pct growth in Nov
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Canadian economy slowed significantly in December, dropping sharply by 0.7 pct month-on-month following growth of 0.1 pct the previous month, figures from Statistics Canada showed.

This was well below analysts' expectations for a much smaller contraction of around 0.2 pct.

Consequently, quarterly growth in the fourth quarter slumped to 0.2 pct from 0.7 pct in the third quarter.

Growth was dented by a significant drop in exports as the country suffered the effects of a very strong currency, Statistics Canada said.
From the Globe and Mail:

Quote:
OTTAWA — Canada's economy grew at its slowest pace in four years in the fourth quarter, as a decline in exports outweighed stronger consumer spending.

Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 0.8 per cent over the final three months of 2007, the weakest since the 0.5 per cent pace in the second quarter of 2003, Statistics Canada reported Monday.

The Canadian economy collapsed in December, contracting 0.7 per cent after a 0.1 per cent gain in November. Factory production dropped 3.7 per cent in the month to its lowest level since December 2001, Statscan said.

Canada's deteriorating economy reflects weaker demand from U.S. buyers who were already baulking at Canadian goods made more expensive by the Canadian dollar's rise.
Finally, here is statistics on Canada's trading partners. This data is for 2006 and was published in October, 2007:

Quote:
Canada's Major Trading Partners - 2006
Canada is a major trading nation whose combined value of exports and imports is the equivalent of more than two-thirds of the country's GDP. Canada trades with the world but its main trading partner is the U.S., accounting for roughly three-quarters of trade and the majority of capital moving in and out of Canada.

Canada's Top 10 Export Markets by Country, 2006

Country % Share of Total Exports
United States 81.6
United Kingdom 2.3
Japan 2.1
China 1.7
Mexico 1.0
Germany 0.9
France 0.7
Netherlands 0.7
South Korea 0.7
Belgium 0.5


Canada's Top 10 Import Markets by Country, 2006

Country % Share of Total Imports
United States 54.9
China 8.7
Mexico 4.0
Japan 3.9
Germany 2.8
United Kingdom 2.7
South Korea 1.5
Norway 1.4
France 1.3
Algeria 1.2

Source: Strategis, Industry Canada, October 2007 (10/2007)
I would also like to add Gordon Sinclair's wonderful monologue from 1973:

Quote:
"The Americans" - Original Script


"LET'S BE PERSONAL" Broadcast June 5, 1973 CFRB, Toronto, Ontario

Topic: "The Americans"

The United States dollar took another pounding on German, French and British exchanges this morning, hitting the lowest point ever known in West Germany. It has declined there by 41% since 1971 and this Canadian thinks it is time to speak up for the Americans as the most generous and possibly the least-appreciated people in all the earth.

As long as sixty years ago, when I first started to read newspapers, I read of floods on the Yellow River and the Yangtze. Who rushed in with men and money to help? The Americans did.

They have helped control floods on the Nile, the Amazon, the Ganges and the Niger. Today, the rich bottom land of the Misssissippi is under water and no foreign land has sent a dollar to help. Germany, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Britain and Italy, were lifted out of the debris of war by the Americans who poured in billions of dollars and forgave other billions in debts. None of those countries is today paying even the interest on its remaining debts to the United States.

When the franc was in danger of collapsing in 1956, it was the Americans who propped it up and their reward was to be insulted and swindled on the streets of Paris. I was there. I saw it.

When distant cities are hit by earthquakes, it is the United States that hurries into help... Managua Nicaragua is one of the most recent examples. So far this spring, 59 American communities have been flattened by tornadoes. Nobody has helped.

The Marshall Plan .. the Truman Policy .. all pumped billions upon billions of dollars into discouraged countries. Now, newspapers in those countries are writing about the decadent war-mongering Americans.

I'd like to see one of those countries that is gloating over the erosion of the United States dollar build its own airplanes.

Come on... let's hear it! Does any other country in the world have a plane to equal the Boeing Jumbo Jet, the Lockheed Tristar or the Douglas 107? If so, why don't they fly them? Why do all international lines except Russia fly American planes? Why does no other land on earth even consider putting a man or women on the moon?

You talk about Japanese technocracy and you get radios. You talk about German technocracy and you get automobiles. You talk about American technocracy and you find men on the moon, not once, but several times ... and safely home again. You talk about scandals and the Americans put theirs right in the store window for everyone to look at. Even the draft dodgers are not pursued and hounded. They are here on our streets, most of them ... unless they are breaking Canadian laws .. are getting American dollars from Ma and Pa at home to spend here.

When the Americans get out of this bind ... as they will... who could blame them if they said 'the hell with the rest of the world'. Let someone else buy the Israel bonds, Let someone else build or repair foreign dams or design foreign buildings that won't shake apart in earthquakes.

When the railways of France, Germany and India were breaking down through age, it was the Americans who rebuilt them. When the Pennsylvania Railroad and the New York Central went broke, nobody loaned them an old caboose. Both are still broke. I can name to you 5,000 times when the Americans raced to the help of other people in trouble.

Can you name me even one time when someone else raced to the Americans in trouble? I don't think there was outside help even during the San Francisco earthquake.

Our neighbours have faced it alone and I am one Canadian who is damned tired of hearing them kicked around. They will come out of this thing with their flag high. And when they do, they are entitled to thumb their nose at the lands that are gloating over their present troubles.

I hope Canada is not one of these. But there are many smug, self-righteous Canadians. And finally, the American Red Cross was told at its 48th Annual meeting in New Orleans this morning that it was broke.

This year's disasters .. with the year less than half-over・has taken it all and nobody...but nobody... has helped.

ORIGINAL SCRIPT AND AUDIO
COURTESY STANDARD BROADCASTING CORPORATION LTD.

(c) 1973 BY GORDON SINCLAIR
PUBLISHED BY STAR QUALITY MUSIC (SOCAN)
A DIVISION OF UNIDISC MUSIC INC.
578 HYMUS BOULEVARD
POINTE-CLAIRE, QUEBEC,
CANADA, H9R 4T2
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Old March 4th, 2008, 02:55 PM
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The cruise lines will move the ships to areas of the world where the economies are not in recession (I.E Oil producing regions for example). This will prevent an over supply of ships in the US market. Also prices will fall as demand shrinks.
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