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  #1 (permalink)  
Old June 10th, 2010, 10:45 AM
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Default Investing in Cruise Lines

I want to start a thread here for cruise line investors to discuss the ups and downs of cruise line stocks.

We had a great run from the ridicilous selloff of 2009, but if you didnt take profits a few months ago you certainly missed the top.

Are you still in, or did you get out? Did you get and are thinking af buying more soon?
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Old June 10th, 2010, 10:48 AM
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Default mid-June 2010

This month we see RCL down to 28 from its high of 38. There has been an overall sell off that has hurt cruise line stocks a lot since they seem to be consumer-confidence sensitive.

There are reason for concern with RCL. They have been dropping prices a lot - based on lower fuel prices, but they dropped their Best Price Guarantee also - which may affect sales but will also reduce costs going forward.

Pricing is soft, but if the economy turns around here ( they Euro has made a u-turn) then this could a momentary bottom and we could see a pretty quick recovery.

Note that Carnival has fared much better in the last week or so, already gaining back some of the loss from this Euro-induced downturn.
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Old June 10th, 2010, 10:52 AM
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Cruise Lawers watching Oil Spill Carefully
If you are wondering why certain cruise law lawyers are trying to rile up anger at British Petroleum for gross negligence there is a VERY good reason.

Congress is considering amending the US involvement with the Death on the High Seas Act - an international treaty that limits liability for death on the high sea to damages equal to the earnings potential for the widow and dependents of the person who dies. (No punitive damages, and no rewards to non-supported family members)

The law states this so companies who hire people to work at sea will not be bankrupted by one mishap - say a ship sinking. If 3000 souls died and there was unlimited liability a cruise line like Carnival, Royal Caribbean, NCL, etc could face enough lawsuit damages to equal $billions - enough to never recover.

The widows of the BP Spill are understandably upset - but these are the conditions under which these rig workers took the job. Changing these rules could have consequences FAR beyond basic oil rigs. If you are a cruise line shareholder you should be watching this case very carefully.
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Old June 10th, 2010, 08:12 PM
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Paul, I'll be the first to admit that I don't understand a lot about stocks :???:. We do own some shares of Carnival and while they're up and down we feel we get enough OBC (good on any Carnival Corp. owned ship), to keep the stock for now. Maybe I'm too simplistic, but that's the way it is here .
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Old June 11th, 2010, 12:22 PM
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Hey Fern... I think it is worth owning 100 shares just for the onboard credit - especially if you cruise a lot. You can buy that for about $3500 right now ($2800 for Royal Caribbean) and there is a very good chance they will retain that value or close to it for the next year or so.

I predict they will even go up within two or three years, in which case you get that onboard credit AND will make a profit at the same time.

Now, $3500 is a lot of money for some people - so I wouldn't do this if there is a chance you will need the money soon - because the stock can always go down. But if you already have a stock portfolio in an IRA or 401k there is likely no harm in buying the stocks to hold longterm.

(any stock investment involves risk - a stock can go up or down at any time).
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Old June 11th, 2010, 05:52 PM
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I plan to purchase CCL shares for my Roth in January and don't expect much of a price move between now and then. Wish I had been aware of the OBC perk back in January 2009 when it was $24 and change!
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Old June 14th, 2010, 11:02 AM
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Default Carnival Set to Announce Earnings June 22

Carnival Corp. will likely report earnings of 29 cents a share for the second quarter of 2010 according to analyst consensus.

The line just received an upgrade to a buy fromn Lazard Freres, with a target of $48/share.
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Old June 14th, 2010, 07:17 PM
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Uh-Oh. This may be the only time I've regretted maxing out on our Roths January 1.
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Old June 15th, 2010, 07:49 PM
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Default Should have listened to the wife

My lovely bride reminds me often that she suggested CCL at about 18--I bought at 23.

I enjoy seeing the shipboard credit--makes me want a mango smoothie!
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Old June 15th, 2010, 09:00 PM
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1449861119&play=1

A video wrapup of cruise line stocks. RCL quadrupled since the low - Carnival up 68%.

Howqever, there is still room for both of these cruise lines to grow, according to analysts. However, it will not be fast growth, we are seeing a slow recovery in travel.

Cruising appears to be one of the stronger areas of recovery.

"it's easier to cut prices in a downturn than to raise them". One analyst said it will be 2011 or 2012 before we see true recovery in these stocks.

But if your goal is to get the shipboard credit there appears to be little risk in buying now - you are not likely to lose money on your stock investment (although every stock market investment can involve risk).
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Old June 27th, 2010, 10:01 AM
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how much onboard credit do you get if you own shares i am young and have a 401k and am looking for something to put some of it into and love cruising so i would love to invest in it. dont know why i never thought of it before!
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Old June 27th, 2010, 12:59 PM
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For Royal Caribbean, this is the benefit:
$250 Onboard Credit per Stateroom on Sailings of 14 or more nights.
$200 Onboard Credit per Stateroom on Sailings of 10 to 13 nights.
$100 Onboard Credit per Stateroom on Sailings of 6 to 9 nights.
$50 Onboard Credit per Stateroom on Sailings of 5 nights or less.
Applicable on any Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises or Azamara Club Cruises Sailings. (excludes Celebrity Xpeditions)

For Carnival Corporation, the benefit is:
Cruises of 14 days or longer: $250
Cruises 7 to 13 days: $100
Cruises 6 days or less: $ 50

Take care,
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Old June 27th, 2010, 08:32 PM
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how many shares do you have to own to get that?
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Old June 27th, 2010, 08:39 PM
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Sorry,

Forgot to add that:

You need 100 shares of either CCL or RCL stock in order to receive the shareholder benefit.

Take care,
Mike
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Old July 20th, 2010, 09:36 PM
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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE, OSE: RCL) has scheduled a conference call with analysts for 10 a.m. Eastern time, Thursday, July 22, 2010, to discuss the company's second quarter financial results.

The call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations web site, www.rclinvestor.com. To listen to the call by phone, please dial (877) 663-9606 in the US and Canada. International phone calls should be made to (706) 758-4628. There is no passcode or meeting number. A replay of the webcast will be available at the same site for a month following the call.

Any predictions on how the quarter will go?
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Old July 22nd, 2010, 09:34 AM
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Default RCL Up $1.59

RCL stock is up $1.59 this morning

MIAMI July 22, 2010 – Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE, OSE: RCL) today announced improved earnings for the second quarter of 2010 and provided higher guidance for the third quarter and full year 2010.

Key Highlights
· Second quarter 2010 net income increased to $60.5 million, or $0.28 per share;
· Business conditions have remained on target in each of the company’s main markets while improved cost control has enabled the company to raise its earnings guidance for the year;
· Operating costs were lower than expected due mainly to strong cost control, energy conservation measures, expense timing and currency fluctuations;
· Second quarter Net Yields increased 4.9%, (5.4% on a Constant Currency basis);
· Second quarter Net Cruise Costs per APCD, “NCC”, declined 2.8%, (2.0% on a Constant Currency basis);
· Net Yields are expected to increase approximately 4% in the third quarter and 3% - 4% for the year as a whole, (7% and 4% - 5% respectively on a Constant Currency basis);
· NCC are expected to be down 1% for the third quarter and down approximately 1% - 2% for the full year;
· EPS expectation for the full year 2010 has been increased by $0.10 to $2.25 to $2.35. Third quarter 2010 EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.52 to $1.57.

“What a difference a year makes. It is gratifying to post another solid quarter with improvement in yields and strong cost control,” said Richard D. Fain, chairman and chief executive officer. Fain continued, “Despite ongoing uncertainty with the economy, our profitability continues to improve and our booking environment continues to be remarkably stable. We remain focused on strengthening our financial position and I am encouraged about the tremendous global response to our brands.”

Second Quarter 2010 Results
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. today announced net income for the second quarter 2010 of $60.5 million, or $0.28 per share, compared to a net loss of $35.1 million, or ($0.16) per share, in second quarter of 2009.

Revenues improved to $1.6 billion in the second quarter of 2010 compared to $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2009, as a result of capacity increases and yield improvements. Net Yields for the second quarter of 2010 increased 4.9% despite the impact of the stronger US Dollar.

In the second quarter of 2010, NCC decreased 2.8%, and NCC excluding fuel decreased 4.4%. Excluding currency impacts, the comparable figures would have been decreases of 2.0% and 3.4%, respectively.

Improved fuel consumption efforts resulted in significantly better fuel consumption of 318,000 metric tons during the second quarter. At-the-pump pricing (including the benefit of the company’s hedging) was virtually unchanged. Altogether, the quarter’s fuel expenditures were approximately $6 million better than previous calculations

Forward Guidance
The company reported that with the exception of currency exchange rates, the current revenue environment has remained stable. Additionally, booked load factors and average per diems continue to run ahead of same time last year for the back half of the year. Third quarter 2010 Net Yields are expected to improve approximately 7% on a Constant Currency basis, or 4% on an as-reported basis. Full Year 2010 Net Yields are expected to improve approximately 4% - 5% on a Constant Currency basis and 3% - 4% on an as-reported basis.
NCC are forecasted to be down 1% for the third quarter and down 1% - 2% for the full year of 2010. On a Constant Currency basis, NCC are forecasted to be flat to up slightly for the third quarter and down 1% for the full year of 2010.

“Demand for our cruises remains on track with our earlier projections,” said Brian J. Rice, executive vice president and chief financial officer. Rice continued, “The strengthening of the US Dollar will clearly result in a reduction of our reported yields, but also provides a corresponding reduction in expenses. Most importantly, our continued focus on cost controls and efficiency is driving improved earnings.”

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Old July 23rd, 2010, 05:38 PM
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Miami Herald....

Royal Caribbean sees boost in income for 2nd quarter - International Business - MiamiHerald.com


Royal Caribbean sees boost in income for 2nd quarter



Cost controls and the addition of the world's largest cruise ship bumped earnings at Royal Caribbean Cruises.


BY BETH JINKS

Bloomberg News

Buoyed by the addition of the world's largest cruise ship, Oasis of the Seas, Royal Caribbean Cruises, the world's second-largest cruise operator, has raised its full-year profit forecast.

Annual earnings will be $2.25 to $2.35 a share, up from the previous forecast of $2.15 to $2.25, the company said Thursday. .....

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Old July 26th, 2010, 06:53 PM
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RCCL at $5.00 & Carnival at $15.00 were good deals for those who got them. Sadly, this benefit is not combinable with other offers on RCCL.
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Old July 27th, 2010, 04:31 PM
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NCL is continuing to lose money, 15 million this last quarter (mostly due to a loss in currency futures- not exactly clear on this). You can invest in them indirectly by investing in AINV who owns 50% of NCL.

Apollo Management - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

the same company owns Harrah's, Oceania and Regent Seven Seas.

Star Cruises still owns 1/2 of NCL but is no longer a controlling member of the board.
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Old August 13th, 2010, 12:52 AM
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I am keeping 100 shares of RCCL, to get OBC. We love to cruise on both Celebrity and Royal. Since we have taken some 10 and 11 day cruises it does pay off.

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Old August 19th, 2010, 02:03 PM
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Default Goldman Sachs ups Price Target to $36

Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) upped its price target on shares of Carnival ( CCL - news - people ) to $36 as lower fuel prices will help the company's earnings over the coming quarters. In the report, Goldman increased its EPS estimates through 2012, but maintained its neutral rating.
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Old October 2nd, 2010, 02:46 PM
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This is good advice for cruise lines you have never been on, in that someone can get onboard credit for their first cruise. With the lines of Carnival, I see this as a great benefit for Cunard, P&O, Princess, Costa, Seaborn, etc.
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Old October 3rd, 2010, 11:12 AM
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Default obc on Holland America

Do you still make the request through World Cruise Reservations FAX # 206-281-0627?
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Old January 19th, 2011, 12:11 PM
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A few questions, if I may ...
  1. Does the Carnival stock count towards a HAL cruise? If so, I will tell DH to buy some today!
  2. Since we generally buy on line and don't have a stock certificate ... is just a printout of the transaction sufficient? I don't necessarily want to disclose my entire portfolio to Carnival.
  3. Do I need to own the stock personally or can I own the stock through my company? As long as my name is on the account (I own the company) would that work?
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Old January 20th, 2011, 07:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Queen of Oakville View Post
A few questions, if I may ...
  1. Does the Carnival stock count towards a HAL cruise? If so, I will tell DH to buy some today!
  2. Since we generally buy on line and don't have a stock certificate ... is just a printout of the transaction sufficient? I don't necessarily want to disclose my entire portfolio to Carnival.
  3. Do I need to own the stock personally or can I own the stock through my company? As long as my name is on the account (I own the company) would that work?
1. Yes
2. Probably OK (I used a statement copy with totals blocked out)
3. ????

Comment: We didn't get the full benefit in shipboard credit. HAL took away another one because "not all apply on the same cruise".....i.e. "some restrictions apply"
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Old January 20th, 2011, 11:55 AM
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thanks! I don't have any other OBC to lose. My travel agent offered it to me as an immediate discount, so I took it!
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Old February 26th, 2011, 05:57 PM
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We're able to use our Carnival stock for OBC on Princess, so I'd guess it would work on any Carnival owned line.

I send a copy of the Proxy Vote that they send me every year. Like you, I don't think they need to see (or even know about) other stock we own.

If the name of your company is "Queen of Oakville Company" I would think it would be okay, but ask your TA.
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Old March 6th, 2011, 10:26 PM
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Default trading 100 shares for next booking credits

I purchased 100 shares of RCL @ $7 when the market crashed a few years ago. Have already received >$700 in OBCs.
Will buy next booking program credits on my upcoming May, 2011 JewelOTS cruise. Then sell my 100 shares when I get home. Shareholder credits and next booking credits are not combinable. With $4000 to $5000 I can buy plenty of next booking cruise credits. Downside is next credits cannot be used across all RCCL lines as shareholder credit can.

Paul I am after reading your comment of last summer, "We had a great run from the ridicilous selloff of 2009, but if you didnt take profits a few months ago you certainly missed the top." Stock was high of $38 then. Price topped off @ $50 a few weeks ago, has since backed off to $44 w/the price of oil.
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Old March 7th, 2011, 09:54 AM
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SHARES OF ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES POTENTIALLY UNDERVALUED IN TERMS OF FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD (RCL, CCL)





Print Share
Mar 07, 2011 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) -- Below are the highest five companies in the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines industry based on estimated Forward Earnings Yields. Using projected earnings for the current fiscal year, the forward earnings yield is useful to compare a stock's return vs. owning a similar stock or other yield assets (e.g. bonds). Generally, the higher the earnings yield, the more undervalued the stock.

Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL) has the highest Forward Earnings Yield of 8.0%; Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is next with a Forward Earnings Yield of 7.4%; and Wyndham Worldwide (NYSE:WYN) has the next highest with a Forward Earnings Yield of 6.7%.

Intercontinental Hotels Group (NYSE:IHG) follows with a Forward Earnings Yield of 5.0% and Ambassadors (NASDAQ:EPAX) rounds out the group with a Forward Earnings Yield of 4.7%.

SmarTrend currently has shares of Intercontinental Hotels Group in an Uptrend and issued the Uptrend alert on December 02, 2010 at $18.80. The stock has risen 15.7% since the Uptrend alert was issued.
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Old March 11th, 2011, 10:55 AM
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Default Carnival Lowers 2011 Guidance - Says it will "miss numbers"

Carnival expects 1Q earnings to miss Street, lowers full-year earnings guidance

MIAMI (AP) - Carnival Corp.'s first-quarter earnings will fall short of Wall Street expectations and the cruise operator is cutting its full-year earnings outlook.




The Miami company blamed rising fuel prices and some itinerary changes in the Middle East and North Africa for the reduction to its 2011 guidance.
Carnival said Friday that its first-quarter adjusted earnings will be 12 cents per share. This is below the 20 cents per share that analysts surveyed by FactSet predict.

The cruise operator now anticipates full-year earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share. That's down from a prior range of $2.90 to $3.10 per share.
Analysts expect earnings of $2.94 per share for the year.

Carnival said its full-year earnings would be lowered by about 40 cents when using current spot fuel prices and currency exchange rates.

Itinerary changes in the Middle East and North Africa will trim the company's earnings for the rest of the year by about 5 cents per share.

The company's stock fell 54 cents to $39.91 in morning trading.
Carnival, which said in January that it was more than doubling its quarterly dividend, is set to report its first-quarter earnings on March 22.

The cruise operator runs 98 ships under brands including Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, Carnival Cruise Lines and Costa Cruises.
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