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Old September 6th, 2005, 06:52 AM
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Default Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Glory B sailors need to keep track of the weather this week. A tropical depression may be forming in the Northwest Bahamas. Here is an excerpt from this morning's tropical weather outlook:

Satellite and radar data...along with nearby surface observations...
indicate a nearly stationary low pressure system located over the
northwest Bahamas has become better defined this morning. Showers
and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized...and
conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for a tropical
depression to form later today. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests in
the Bahamas and Florida should closely monitor the progress of this
system over the next few days.

Look forward to seeing everyone Friday for dinner!

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Old September 6th, 2005, 07:32 AM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Oh Marc

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Old September 6th, 2005, 08:16 AM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Oh oh!! Tropical depression, hurricane, rough seas................NOTHING is going to spoil this cruise for me.


Laura

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Old September 6th, 2005, 09:14 AM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Marc, it is supposed to be gone by Friday according to both national and local weather here. If anything bothers us it will be the hurricanes that are out there now and only because of rough seas the first day. We are going to have fun and get away from all the problems for a weeks.
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Old September 6th, 2005, 09:43 AM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Jim:

TD-16 has formed. By Saturday 1200Z (8am EDT) the storm is supposed to be sitting right off New Smyrna Beach with winds of 60kts (70mph). This is strong tropical storm force winds.

I reiterate that it is worth watching.

Here is the new forecast for TD-16:
Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 15:00Z on September 06, 2005



at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
the East Coast of Florida from north of Jupiter northward to
Titusville including Merritt Island...and the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Bahama and
the Abacos.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 26.5n 78.6w at 06/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement is stationary

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.5n 78.6w at 06/1500z
at 06/1200z center was located near 26.5n 78.5w

forecast valid 07/0000z 27.0n 79.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 27.6n 79.3w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 28.0n 79.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 28.5n 80.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 29.0n 80.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 10/1200z 29.5n 81.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Outlook valid 11/1200z 30.5n 82.0w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.5n 78.6w

next advisory at 06/2100z

forecaster Avila



Post Edited (09-06-05 09:46)
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Old September 6th, 2005, 09:48 AM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

I am adding the new Discussion from NHC:

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 06, 2005



satellite...radar and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure over the northwestern Bahamas has developed enough
circulation and thunderstorm activity to be classified as a
tropical depression. The center appears to be located on the
southern edge of the convection due to some shear. However...an
upper-level ridge is forecast to develop over the system...reducing
the shear...and the circulation is forecast to remain over warm
waters for 2 to 3 days. Therefore...a gradual strengthening is
indicated and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
later tonight or Wednesday. The official intensity forecast is
close to the SHIPS model output.

The depression is in formative stage and the initial motion is
uncertain but...it appears that the main center of circulation is
nearly stationary. Steering currents are very weak so little motion
is anticipated but the cyclone should begin to move slowly toward
the north-northwest very close to the East Coast of Florida.
Because the depression is expected to become a tropical storm and
be near the east cost of central Florida...a Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued accordingly. The Tropical Storm Warning may be
extended northward along the East Coast of Florida as the cyclone
moves north-northwestward.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/1500z 26.5n 78.6w 25 kt
12hr VT 07/0000z 27.0n 79.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 07/1200z 27.6n 79.3w 40 kt
36hr VT 08/0000z 28.0n 79.7w 50 kt
48hr VT 08/1200z 28.5n 80.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 09/1200z 29.0n 80.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 10/1200z 29.5n 81.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 11/1200z 30.5n 82.0w 40 kt...inland

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Old September 6th, 2005, 04:13 PM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Now they are forecasting the storm to be little faster; near Jax by Saturday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2005



there has been little change in organization during the past few
hours as indicated by T-numbers from TAFB and SAB which have
remained at 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data from a NOAA
reconnaissance plane show that pressure is about 1008 mb and there
is a well-defined but broad low-level circulation. Most of the
weather associated with the depression is north of the center due
to a little bit of southerly wind shear. However...most of the
global models suggest the development of an upper-level ridge over
the cyclone...and because the ocean is warm along the forecast path
a gradual strengthening is indicated. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later tonight or Wednesday and the official
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model output. I am a
little bit uncomfortable bringing the intensity up farther when the
GFDL does not strengthen the cyclone.

The depression has been meandering for the past few hours. Steering
currents are very weak and only a small northwestward drift is
anticipated in the next two to three days as suggested by most of
the guidance. Beyond 3 days...the track forecast is highly
uncertain. The latest GFS model run indicates that a short wave
will bypass to the north of the cyclone and will not pick it
up...while the UK model shows a stronger shortwave taking the
cyclone more to the north-northeast. In general...some models show
tracks into the Gulf of Mexico and others show tracks northeastward
over the open Atlantic. The official forecast keeps the cyclone
moving slowly toward the northwest and over northern Florida
similar to the GFS solution.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/2100z 26.7n 78.5w 25 kt
12hr VT 07/0600z 27.2n 78.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 07/1800z 27.7n 79.2w 40 kt
36hr VT 08/0600z 28.1n 79.6w 50 kt
48hr VT 08/1800z 28.7n 80.2w 60 kt
72hr VT 09/1800z 29.5n 81.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 10/1800z 30.0n 81.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 11/1800z 30.5n 82.5w 35 kt...inland

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Old September 6th, 2005, 05:07 PM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Hi Marc,
I also heard that Nate may get too close to Bermuda?? Keep us informed, I'll be trying to fly into MCO on Sat......keep us posted, OK?

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Old September 6th, 2005, 05:28 PM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Donna, don't worry. They never close the airport here for too long. At worst, you will lose your pre-cruise day.

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Old September 6th, 2005, 06:28 PM
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Default Re: Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Hi Marc,
I'm coming in the day of the cruise, no pre-day....keep your fingers crossed.

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Old September 6th, 2005, 06:46 PM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Donna by Sat the storm will be past Orlando. Not to worry. You will be going south on the ship while the storm goes north. Might encounter a bit of rain but otherwise should be OK.

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Old September 6th, 2005, 07:14 PM
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Default Re: Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

Oh Tweets....
Thats OK by me, I'm sure once we cruise, we'll have beautiful weather... Just keep me updated, since you are there....Our flight is supposed to leave here at 9:26, arrive at 12:58....first flight to MCO.

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Old September 6th, 2005, 10:24 PM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

I hope it doesn't effect your plans. You guys have planned this for as long as I have known you, and all deserve a break. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Luanne

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Old September 7th, 2005, 10:30 PM
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Default Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia to Impact Glory B?!?!

She just does not want to let anyone know what she is going to do! We are currently sitting under TS warnings and watches and the darn computer mopdels are all over the place with one having it make a loop and hit St Augustine next week, one has it come in Port C and or just above it and cross into the Gulf, (like those poor people need that!), and another has it turning north east and missing everyone. I am hoping for the latter! I am trying to keep an eye on it and any CCL statements etc on this cruise. I'm getting on the darn ship and enjoying the waves the first day!
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