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  #1 (permalink)  
Old January 15th, 2009, 05:50 PM
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Default Global Warming, My Fanny

The predicted high for San Antonio today was off by twenty degrees, fortunately. It was supposed to be 45 and it reached 65.

If the forecasters can't predict the weather for one day in one city any better than that, how can anyone forecast the weather for the whole planet for several years? I want to hold on to my carbon credits since, in this financial market, there is not much other credit available.
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Old January 15th, 2009, 07:37 PM
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OVERALL where I live, we certainly do have hotter summers, more hot hazy humid days, and less freezing cold days like today. Certainly there has been alot written about that in our papers and the over all numbers and averages over the last 100 years have meant for warmer summers and warmer winters. That doesnt mean we dont have times where it is colder one year over another opr that we never get cold weather any more - this year was a crummy summer for us in terms of so much rain- but over all where I live there has been happily a warming trend, with fewer really freezing cold days like today was. How ever this has also meant more hot hazy humid days in summer in our summer , and I have difficulty in that weather. As for our weather report today, they told me I was gonna freeze my butt off, and I did
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Old January 15th, 2009, 07:55 PM
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Paul, us to the east of you in Houston have the same problems. I refuse to watch the local forecasters because they are so inept.
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Old January 15th, 2009, 08:30 PM
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Our weather man has it easy. We don't get much weather change in California the low was 36 the high was 63. Tomorrow will be the same, It doesn't snow, and there is no hail. We do get rain sometimes the weather man gets all excited it's really cute.
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Old January 15th, 2009, 11:43 PM
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Ain't no warming here... they predicted a "High" of -24 and they were right- Brrrrr!

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Old January 16th, 2009, 08:21 AM
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Well...when it is almost -30 below zero - just air temps, not factoring wind chills, global warming is far from anyones mind. At this point we are just trying to get thru the cold snap.
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Old January 16th, 2009, 09:12 AM
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I've been thinking the same thing....this is global warming, HUH? I just hope we reach zero or a little above today, currently without windchill, its -20...Off to work soon, just hopeing for some improvement....
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Old January 16th, 2009, 09:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by katlady
Our weather man has it easy. We don't get much weather change in California the low was 36 the high was 63. Tomorrow will be the same, It doesn't snow, and there is no hail. We do get rain sometimes the weather man gets all excited it's really cute.
Nope the weather has changed. low of 35 and high of 66. 8) This time of year is when I love California. Hey you can buy a house out here cheap now. I didn't even bring a jacket to work today to warm in the afternoon.
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Old January 17th, 2009, 09:14 AM
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One cold snap and the starboard leaning idealogues come out in droves.
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Old January 17th, 2009, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by katlady
Quote:
Originally Posted by katlady
Our weather man has it easy. We don't get much weather change in California the low was 36 the high was 63. Tomorrow will be the same, It doesn't snow, and there is no hail. We do get rain sometimes the weather man gets all excited it's really cute.
Nope the weather has changed. low of 35 and high of 66. 8) This time of year is when I love California. Hey you can buy a house out here cheap now. I didn't even bring a jacket to work today to warm in the afternoon.
Kat:

So what would be the average price now in Sac area of a 3 bedroom, ranch style house in a decent neighborhood? I know there are alot of factors, just curious about what it would be approximately.
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Old January 17th, 2009, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ready2board
Quote:
Originally Posted by katlady
Quote:
Originally Posted by katlady
Our weather man has it easy. We don't get much weather change in California the low was 36 the high was 63. Tomorrow will be the same, It doesn't snow, and there is no hail. We do get rain sometimes the weather man gets all excited it's really cute.
Nope the weather has changed. low of 35 and high of 66. 8) This time of year is when I love California. Hey you can buy a house out here cheap now. I didn't even bring a jacket to work today to warm in the afternoon.
Kat:

So what would be the average price now in Sac area of a 3 bedroom, ranch style house in a decent neighborhood? I know there are alot of factors, just curious about what it would be approximately.
Okay I found you a place in Wilton CA it's very close to Sacramento but, there are a lot of horse farms there and it has a nice horse ranch feel. This house was built in 1999 it's 3 bedrooms 2 bath and has 3.13 acres of land. The list price is $199.900. it's not super fancy and it could use some work.
Now this I dig it's a 5 bedroom 3 bath single story on 2.85 acres built in 2005. The house is huge 3600 sq feet for $388,000.
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Old January 17th, 2009, 01:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougR.
One cold snap and the starboard leaning idealogues come out in droves.
And Doug, the port leaning ones have been tumbling out of their port holes for years without much evidence of man-caused global warming.

I t would be pretty astonishing if there was not some global warming going on, since the climate has been warming (with a few cooling blips lasting a century or two here or there) since the end of the last major ice age. The geologic record demonstrates irrefutably that the earth is always either warming or cooling. Climate is never static. Just because things appear to have been a certain way for a hundred years or so is hardly evidence that they will remain that way forever -- they most certainly will not. The earth will warm, and it will cool, in cycles completely independent of any activity of human beings. Mass hysteria aside.

That said, there is some evidence (and I emphasise some) that CO2 contributed by mankind may be having a slight effect on adding to the current warming cycle. But many of the same folks who are screaming about the sky falling now, 20 years or so ago, were trying to scare us to death with fears about the coming "new ice age." Remember?

Some of us "starboard leaning ideologues" are merely rational thinkers who are a bit sceptical of dogmatic lurches into quasi religious beliefs in doom.
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Old January 18th, 2009, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richstacy
Some of us "starboard leaning ideologues" are merely rational thinkers who are a bit sceptical of dogmatic lurches into quasi religious beliefs in doom.
Excepting of course 99% of scientists - quasi-religious beliefs?
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Old January 18th, 2009, 01:02 PM
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Steven77,
99% of scientists? Nonsense!! That is not true now, nor has it ever been true. a majority and a consensus is hardly 99%. That is a gross exaggeration. there are plenty of reputable skeptics. most people who believe in man caused global warming know nothing at all of the science, it is pure politics akin to religious fervor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_...ng_the_science

what's worse, even if the theory is 100% correct, that leaves us with two alternatives and two only. 1. exterminate 3/4 of the human race (the culprits who are causing the global warming) or 2. built hundreds of nuclear power plants NOW.

Not wanting to be exterminated, I favor the latter approach. It is the only approach which will produce all the power we need without producing ANY greenhouse gases, and allow us to wean ourselves entirely from fossil fuels. Solar and wind generation would help but could never really fill the gap.
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Old January 18th, 2009, 01:21 PM
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Stevan77,
I realize you are Canadian, but here is a link to an op-ed I wrote for the Denver post a while back which IMHO, contains the elements of a viable energy policy, devoid of special interest posturing from either energy companies or environmentalists. You may find it of interest.

http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_9755670

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Old January 19th, 2009, 10:29 AM
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I can't argue with your position in that article Richard (except to add Natural Gas to the equation), but I stand by my roll-eyes comment when you refer to the vast majority of climate scientists as being motivated by quasi-religious beliefs. GCC-denyers have had to move reluctantly from denying GCC altogether to denying the effect and therefore the usefulness of human intervention. Rather a hope-less position IMO, and I really don't see the point of railing against those who propose that it is a good thing to clean up the planet. To link those who believe that mankind should be taking drastic steps to reduce CO2 emissions pollutants with the anti-nuclear movement is false and misleading.

Not entirely sure this is the forum for this . . .
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Old January 19th, 2009, 10:39 AM
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There is no question that our planet has been warming up "naturally " since the last ice age, however there is also no question in my mind that in tha last 100 years, we have sped up this process. In my life time alone, there has been a definate change in our seasons and in our averages, and they have been over all warmer, and we have far more pollution that we ever did. Glabal warming aside, we as a people have been exceptionally disrespectful of our planet, and I hope our attitudes of me myself and I soon change soon enough that we can leave a clean healthy planet to our children's children. As for Nuclear energy, it is not the godsend some make it out to be, there is no such thing, everything we do has a list of pro's and cons, and nuclear energy is no differant, there is no such thing at all as risk free or with out negatives, just as there is no such thing as no positives. Its finding the right balance over time, what is worth the risk versus benifit ratio. IMHO.
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Old January 19th, 2009, 11:54 AM
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Wow this thread isn't going to last long. Oh well, here is my say if the Earth wants us gone we will be gone. In fact we will be long gone before the plant is destroyed. If you ever see the Ocean recede run like hell for high ground; that is the mark of a Tsunami. The is an amazing fact:
Quote:
The earthquake that generated the great Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 is estimated to have released the energy of 23,000 Hiroshima-type atomic bombs, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1227_041226_tsunami.html

The earthquake that hit the Northern Coast of Sumatra on December 26th, 2004 actually altered the rotation period of the earth. It also change the face of the globe. For those if us who believe in Pangea this is not a surprise. Welcome to the way the earth use to look before the plates shifted. Right now as we speak the earth is creating it new form. I'm sure we won't live long enough to see it. Humans will be gone in the blink of an eye in the overall time of the earth. We place more importance on our impact then we actually have.
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Old January 19th, 2009, 02:04 PM
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Sigh! Stevan, I did not "rail against" those who propose that it is a good thing to clean up the planet. As you can see from the 'conservation' and 'alternative fuels' legs of my piece, I'm all for it. Nor am I a total global climate change denier, (as you can see from reading my piece and my post.) I don't even deny that there may be something to the fact that man is contributing to it.

As I said, "That said, there is some evidence (and I emphasise some) that CO2 contributed by mankind may be having a slight effect on adding to the current warming cycle."

Why you insist on attributing motives to me that I don't have is beyond me. I merely point out that climate change is in fact the norm -- not the exception, and that the majority of scientists a few years back were on the lookout for the coming ice age. I'm sure you recall that as well as I do. I merely advocate a little healthy skepticism, rather than the blind hysterical leftist approach. It is indeed akin to a religious belief. I treat the other side with scepticism as well.

But, if I had an opportunity to drive a plug-in hybrid, recharged by wind, solar or nuclear, which have no carbon footprint, I would do so.
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Old January 19th, 2009, 02:13 PM
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"To link those who believe that mankind should be taking drastic steps to reduce CO2 emissions pollutants with the anti-nuclear movement is false and misleading. "

Not true at all Stevan if you reverse it, i.e., many greenies are in both camps -- though a significant number of anti-nuke environmentalists are starting to come around to embrace nuclear power as a means to reduce carbon emissions..
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Old January 19th, 2009, 06:57 PM
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First, let me adopt the balanced comments of Delft as my own.

Having done that: Richard - I interpret your describing those who are committed to a serious attempt at combating GCC as being hysterical and quasi-religious as tantamount to "railing" . . . (in the nicest possible sense).

Other than that I have no meaningful objection to your position. I suspect our differences on this subject are of emphasis only. That, and the fact that we share an educational background that encourages head-butting!
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Old January 19th, 2009, 07:22 PM
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We can't help ourselves
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Old January 20th, 2009, 06:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richstacy
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougR.
One cold snap and the starboard leaning idealogues come out in droves.
Some of us "starboard leaning ideologues" are merely rational thinkers who are a bit sceptical of dogmatic lurches into quasi religious beliefs in doom.
Considering the source of the deniers, most of them wrap themselves in the mantle of religion.
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Old January 20th, 2009, 06:36 PM
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Huh
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Old January 21st, 2009, 05:07 PM
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Stevan77,

Quote:
Originally Posted by You
Excepting of course 99% of scientists - quasi-religious beliefs?
In fact, there's a growing consensus among real scientists that "global warming" is NOT real. Scrutiny of the analysis presented at a conference that claimed to show a clear warming trend, based on NASA's climatological data, exposed some very clear errors in the analysis. When the researcher and his critics corrected the errors, they found that the trend in NASA's data was perfectly flat -- neither warming nor cooling.

Another check you can do quite easily is to generate histograms of the years of the record highest and lowest minimum temperatures and record highest and lowest maximum temperatures for each date at various weather stations. If there's a significant warming, you'll see more highest temperatures and fewer lowest temperatures in recent years than in years in the distant past. Conversely, if there's a cooling trend, you'll find the reverse. And if you do this analysis, you'll find that the record extreme temperatures are distributed pretty uniformly -- an indication that there is no significant warming or cooling trend.

So why all the conferences that have lots of papers about "global warming" or, more recently, "global climate change," in recent years? The problem is that people with political agendas have gained control of both (1) distribution of research dollars dispersed by our federal government and many foreign governments and (2) the programs at many of these technical conferences. In order to promote their agenda, they have systematically given research dollars only to charletans who consistently manipulate data to show the desired warming trends and have systematically excluded anybody who gets contrary results from their conferences. The result is that very little of the money for study of climate change is flowing to real scientists, who also have difficulty getting published if they work in this area.

BTW, the climatological computer models that are predicing wild changes are seriously flawed, too. In most cases, the major flaw is the omission of critical feedback mechanisms that stabilize the climatological system based on the mistaken assumption that the associated terms in the equations that govern the climatological system must be insignificant. The models that have those terms behave very differently.

In case you doubt that this can happen, my thesis advisor, Ed Lorenz, was one of the first people to question the significance of a term in a weather model that everybody before him had ignored. When he put the term into the system, he got radically different behavior, alright. The resulting system became known as the Lorenz Attractor -- the first known example of "Chaos" in a physical system.

Norm.
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Old January 21st, 2009, 05:18 PM
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Old January 21st, 2009, 05:26 PM
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Lorenz Attractor is such a pretty butterfly.
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Old January 21st, 2009, 05:30 PM
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Oh here are the equations if you want to do the math. I copied and pasted from the website link on the bottom of the page.

The system is most commonly expressed as 3 coupled non-linear differential equations.

dx / dt = a (y - x)
dy / dt = x (b - z) - y

dz / dt = xy - c z

One commonly used set of constants is a = 10, b = 28, c = 8 / 3. Another is a = 28, b = 46.92, c = 4. "a" is sometimes known as the Prandtl http://number and "b" the Rayleigh n...actals/lorenz/
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Old January 21st, 2009, 05:34 PM
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Thanks norm. Some of that same information was contained in the well researched novel by the late Michael Crichton, State of Fear. A good read. Formerly a darling of the Hollywood left, Crichton was ostracised for daring to question leftist orthodoxy.
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Old January 21st, 2009, 05:39 PM
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katlady,

Quote:
Originally Posted by You
Lorenz Attractor is such a pretty butterfly.
Yes, but it's actually a plot of a time trace of certain variables. There are two "attractor" points, located at the centers of the black ellipses in the middle of the wings. If you look closely, you'll discover that each orbit may continue around the same attractor as the previous orbit or may cross over to orbit around the other attractor when it gets to the bottom. Further, the orbits that exhibit each behavior are interleaved at the apparent decision region and thus produce the appearance of randomness even the behavior really is completely deterministic.

Norm.
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