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Old December 17th, 2009, 03:55 PM
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Default Cruising Trends for 2020? Your predictions requested.

Kuki did a great blog - "Cruising Trends for 2010" - but I wanted to ask you guys what you see as the future of cruising for the NEXT 10 years.

First of all, lets look at some of the advents of 2000-2010 developments and see what has happened, and where those things can go:

New ships are bigger and have far more alternative dining choices.

Dress codes have become far more lax - tuxedos have virtually disappeared from cruising in the last few years (that happened surprisingly fast, didn't it?)

Ships now contain about 80% balcony cabins. Obviously, a balcony has become the standard stateroom on a cruise.

We have far more "drive-to" cruises than ever before. All cruises used to leave from Miami, New York, Vancouver or L.A. - now we have Mobile, Charlotte, San Diego, Baltimore, Galveston, New Orleans, etc...

Ships are bigger - WAY bigger than we ever expected. Have we reached the top or is Oasis just a stepping stone?

River Cruising in Europe has exploded in popularity, while it virtually died in America (Sadly).

So - what do you predict will happen to the cruise industry in the next 10 years?
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Old December 18th, 2009, 07:09 AM
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Default no replies to this?

no one has any predictions on where cruising is going in 2020?
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Old December 18th, 2009, 09:34 AM
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I really have no idea, I predict that ship builders and cruise lines are going to have to strike a balance between the behemoths that are now entering the markets and the small older ships that will likely be going out of service in the next 10 years. Grappling with the fact that not everyone will be enticed by the shopping mall and food court on the high seas and that there is still a market for the more obscure ports that cannot be reached by these mega ships.

As for the dress code issue, with airline's charging substantially for extra luggage and the fact that cruising is now more affordable... but formal wear isn't. , may have had some impact. But really I think people are just trying to pack less and avoid carrying as much and paying for those extra bags.

As for room choices, I used to do inside rooms and they were OK, but I really like balcony and minisuite options and would like to see this trend continue.

I really hope that the ships don't get any bigger.

As fro River Cruising... I would like to try this in Europe sometime in the next decade. It sounds great. Now in the United States I think it is so sad that Delta Queen and others like her is gone. Every year there is a festival called "Tall Stacks" the showcases the old paddlewheel river boats and that would be very fun to experience. If anyone would like to do some day cruising they cruise during the day and stop for the night and passengers stay in a nearby hotel then in the morning they head back down the river. There is still the Spirit of Peoria...my Mom still plays the Calliope and keyboard on her during some of their summer trips. Not exactly a luxury cruise but fun I suppose for some who enjoy the history of the river and the old riverboats.

BTW Paul. I like your new profile picture.
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Old December 18th, 2009, 11:10 AM
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What I would like to see is something like this - smaller cruise ships like Oceania coming down in cruise fares, so i could take a 10-day cruise on those ships rather than a 3600-passenger Carnival ship.

There are still plenty of small ships out there for the people who want them however, and they generally sell for less than the newer. bigger ships. I often see great values on Celebrity Mercury, and all of the 1990s Carnival and RCL ships.
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Old December 18th, 2009, 10:48 PM
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I can't see a continuation of the " bigger is better" theme that the cruise lines have going right now. I think the Dream and Oasis will do ok , as they're a novelty right now. I just can't see any cruise line continuing to spend hundreds of millions to build these behemoths,not to mention the staffing, the upkeep, the cost of insurance. And too, the cost of fuel for an Oasis or a Dream has to be astronomical for a 7 day cruise. And we all know how unstable the cost of oil is, has been and probably will continue to be for years.
I can see a slow down in the building of these larger ships with an increase in passengers back to the more mid size ships--people who like to cruise for the sake of a cruise--fine dining--pleasant table mates and conversations--people who care where they cruise to and enjoy the ports they visit instead of all the bells and whistles these newer ships have now.
In other words, look for cruising to slowly return to cruising, rather than just boarding a ship not caring where it goes as long as you're on some monster with parks, greens,malls, shops,etc. and not knowing where you've been, if anywhere after the cruise is over.
I also look for more and more 4-5 day cruises--that will satisfy a lot of people who are just wanting a good time partying. I look too, for more 10-12 day cruises for the other cruisers as I mentioned above who want to cruise for the sake of cruising rather than just being aboard the ship as a destination in itself for a few days.
If the cruise lines do continue to build all these bigger and bigger ships, it will eventually be to the point where the Caribbean will be so over crowded with ships and passengers that they'll have to have traffic cops at sea to keep order and to keep the traffic flowing--Red lights at sea ??
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Old December 19th, 2009, 02:40 AM
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I see a continued trend towards theme cruises as a way for the cruiselines to reach out to a broader audience that normally would not consider cruising, and as a revenue generator to charter ships during slower times or to fill their older ships
As the United States population compostion make up continues to shift , the cruiselines will continue to reflect the demographics, in it's marketing efforts with emphasis on the Hispanic population and more cruises in South America
I see cruiseships having more ADA disability accomodations to enable the cash rich, time free baby boom population to continue to cruise
I see Cruisemates being sold to a consortium led by Donald Trump & Dave The Wave and Paul& Kuki using their golden parachutes to run for Gov & Lt Gov of Arizona
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Old December 19th, 2009, 10:47 AM
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My thoughts are There will be more of the larger type theme parks ships, with most of the cruise being at sea, fewer port visits. Spending most of your money aboard.
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Old December 19th, 2009, 11:05 AM
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Cruising will become more "ala carte". Where you will have a base fare and pay additional for the majority of dining and entertainment options. There will be base dining options with a buffet and some sort of main dining room but more alternative restaurant options and "Celebrity Chef Restaurants" will be the norm. There will also be more "pay entertainment" options. The "Hairspray, Blue Man Group and headline comics and singers" will initially be included in the base fare but I believe you will see these become an additional expense. The "Sea Legs Goes Hollywood" and "Joey Chuckles" comedy type of shows will still be around for no additional charge but the good shows will be additional.

Cruising will become a Las Vegas type of experience where each ship will be like Las Vegas hotels where each is themed and try to outdo the other.

The good thing is that I still see "niche" ships and cruiselines that will offer more upscale and traditional types of cruises that cater to the itinerary and ports become popular but much more expensive than mainstream cruiselines.

The end result is that unless you want to cruise and "look" you will pay more for your cruise experience.

Take care,
Mike
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Old December 19th, 2009, 12:03 PM
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Those are all eally astute observations.

Here is on thing to ponder, in reality big ships make cruising cheaper per passenger. You dont see 300-passenger ships going for $499 week. But you do see that in the 3000-passenger ships.

They have more ways onboard to make extra revenue, and cost of fuel, nsavigational crew, etc is all lower per person. Oasis is much cheaper for fuel (30%+) than Freedom - per person.

I like Mike's theme that ships will be more a la carte. Did you know that in Europe MSC charges a fee for any room service visit? They take it off in the Caribbean because Americans wouldn't pay it. BUt in Europe you will pay.
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Old December 19th, 2009, 12:35 PM
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In fact - there is an odd thing happeining now - Europeans are just nowe discovering big cruise ships, while they have enjoyed river cruising very many years now.

Meanwhile - Americans have slowed down using the big ships to see Europe and they are flocking to the small riverboats where you see even more of the destination.

Basically, Europeans have been more "lay in the sun & tan vacationers" than Americans, but we started doing that more with Club Med type vacations in the 1970s. Before that, I believe every American vacation involved the Buick and maps to national parks.

So, now the Europeans are continuing the "lay in the sun" tradition by booking big cruise ships in ever growing numbers, while Americans are starting to look for more adventures in their cruises.
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Old December 19th, 2009, 12:39 PM
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Default What's your ideal cruise - price sensitive?

I would like to know what cruise you buy under various budget conditions:

1. I gave you $3,000 - what would you book?

2. I gave you $7500 - what would you book?

3. I gave you $15,000 - what would you book?

4. I offered you a free world cruise - which line would you choose? (Without going to the obvious "luxury lines" the question is more one of "which cruise line do you think you could stay on for 100 days and not get bored?)
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Old December 19th, 2009, 02:37 PM
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I think there will be more bargain fares for 2010.For Instance:

I just saw 2010 Thanksgiving 8 night Mexican Riviera, including almost two days in Acapulco, a stop in Zihuatanejo/Ixtapa, and a stop in Manzanillo for $369 per person.
That is a huge giveaway on a Holiday week with 2 at sea days each direction out of San Diego. Wow!
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Old December 19th, 2009, 03:19 PM
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Assuming the $ 3,000. is for a 7 night cruise, I'd probably opt for RCCL.
With $7500.00 I would think about a 10-14 day cruise on Hal or Princess.
For the $ 15,000.00 I would look at a tour/cruise to the Med. on RCCl or Princess.
For the free world cruise, it would have to do with the itin-- Hal or Princess, probably, depending upon which one had the best itin. for me personally.

Feel free to surprise me with anyone of the above at anytime.
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Old December 19th, 2009, 04:19 PM
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hmmmmmm let's see

$3,000 -inside cabin on a full charter smooth jazz cruise (7 days)

$7500 - 1 inside cabin, 1 balcony cabin on a full charter smooth jazz cruise

$15,000 - 1 suite, 1 balcony, 1 inside cabin on a full charter smooth jazz cruise

world cruise - would not do one..would trade it in for 1 suite per year for the next 10 years on a full charter smooth jazz cruise (7 days)
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Old December 19th, 2009, 05:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Palm View Post
I think there will be more bargain fares for 2010.For Instance:

I just saw 2010 Thanksgiving 8 night Mexican Riviera, including almost two days in Acapulco, a stop in Zihuatanejo/Ixtapa, and a stop in Manzanillo for $369 per person.
That is a huge giveaway on a Holiday week with 2 at sea days each direction out of San Diego. Wow!

Was that for Carnival Spirit? That is a GREAT deal!
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Old December 19th, 2009, 05:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron View Post
Assuming the $ 3,000. is for a 7 night cruise, I'd probably opt for RCCL.
With $7500.00 I would think about a 10-14 day cruise on Hal or Princess.
For the $ 15,000.00 I would look at a tour/cruise to the Med. on RCCl or Princess.
For the free world cruise, it would have to do with the itin-- Hal or Princess, probably, depending upon which one had the best itin. for me personally.

Feel free to surprise me with anyone of the above at anytime.

Ron... good choices by the way. Did you know you can get a world cruise on HAL for about $19,000? HAL Amsterdam FLL to Seattle, 111 nights. Amazing, eh?
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Old December 19th, 2009, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron View Post
Assuming the $ 3,000. is for a 7 night cruise, I'd probably opt for RCCL.
With $7500.00 I would think about a 10-14 day cruise on Hal or Princess.
For the $ 15,000.00 I would look at a tour/cruise to the Med. on RCCl or Princess.
For the free world cruise, it would have to do with the itin-- Hal or Princess, probably, depending upon which one had the best itin. for me personally.

Feel free to surprise me with anyone of the above at anytime.

Ron... good choices by the way. Did you know you can get a world cruise on HAL for about $19,000? HAL Amsterdam FLL to Seattle, 111 nights. Amazing, eh?
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Old December 19th, 2009, 06:58 PM
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There's good deals to be had if one has the time and can keep on top of whats happening with all the different lines and itins.
I'm retired ( if you can call it that--cleaned 3 bathrooms today, did 3 loads laundry and just finished putting clean linens on two beds, got a haircut, went to the store,fed the birds and my cat. Even stopped and got a bottle of mango flavored Cruzan rum and fixed my own supper) but my wife still works in the jewelry business so right now it's hard for us to take an extended trip. A 10 day cruise is about all we can stretch as far as time's concerned. She's talking retirement in the next year or so and hopefully when she does, we can take some extended cruises.
One cruise I've always wanted to take is a trip around South America.We've been to S.A. a couple of times on land vacations ( Rio in Brazil and Venezuela) but would love to circumnavigate the continent on a cruise ship.
But as they say, so many cruises, so little time.
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Old December 19th, 2009, 07:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Motter View Post
Ron... good choices by the way. Did you know you can get a world cruise on HAL for about $19,000? HAL Amsterdam FLL to Seattle, 111 nights. Amazing, eh?
Okay Paul here we go. I can guess as well as anyone. After a period of inflation in the US economy the older people have less to spend on cruising and other vacation activities, this change has forced major changes in the cruise industry. The Oasis is now a Hotel and convention center in Miami and a popular stop for people on vacation in Miami. The ship is connected to land facilities and power and the engines are no longer run. RCCL stated that in the event they move the ship ocean going tugs will be used. A major decrease in travel time and cost for flights to Europe has made many cities popular for short vacations. The cruise industry is going back to it's roots with very good deals for one week vacations to the Caribbean. The world economy has caused many problems in the Caribbean islands and cruise public no longer goes to San Jan, Colombia, and Jamaica. People now dress up more when cruising, and the newest form of entertainment is New York and London stage plays that run two or three nights. Wicked started the trend and was so well received that the cruise industry made stage plays a center theme for each cruise line. Cast parties with the ships passengers have grown very popular, and have replaced many of the other ship parties. Casino's continue to be a major profit center and, cruise lines have taken a page from Las Vegas on how they draw in customers. Rewards are geared to the amount of money a passenger spends not the number of cruises taken. I can't think of anything else right now. I like the play idea, the rest is a lot of tongue in cheek. Mike
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Old December 19th, 2009, 07:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Motter View Post
I would like to know what cruise you buy under various budget conditions:

1. I gave you $3,000 - what would you book?

2. I gave you $7500 - what would you book?

3. I gave you $15,000 - what would you book?

4. I offered you a free world cruise - which line would you choose? (Without going to the obvious "luxury lines" the question is more one of "which cruise line do you think you could stay on for 100 days and not get bored?)
I will take your generous offer to mean two people. I guess I would have to take my wife.

$3000: 10 day Southern Caribbean (sort of) New York - New York on NCL Gem - Balcony or mini-suite. Mini is just $30 over the $1500 pp limit.

$7500: 14 day Asia: Hong Kong - Singapore on Azamara - Balcony

$15000: 27 day South America: Santiago - Rio on Oceania - Balcony

World Cruise: It would depend on the number of ports and itinerary. I believe if 1/2 of the days were port days I doubt I would be bored on most ships as long as I had a balcony cabin. I would not consider a cruise without a balcony. If the lux lines are out then here are my thoughts.

Holland America and Cunard are the only two that would be in on my list. P&O offers a world option but I am unfamiliar with that line and I wouldn't risk 80+ days on an unfamiliar line. There are a couple of European lines like Fred Olsen and Saga but the same reasoning disqualifies them.

I would go with Holland America because it would be less formal and it does have a main dining room option for open seating.

Good question: It's fun to dream especially when you're footing the bill.

Take care,
Mike
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Old December 19th, 2009, 11:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Motter View Post
I would like to know what cruise you buy under various budget conditions:

1. I gave you $3,000 - what would you book?
Princess

2. I gave you $7500 - what would you book?
Oceania
3. I gave you $15,000 - what would you book?
Oceania
4. I offered you a free world cruise - which line would you choose? (Without going to the obvious "luxury lines" the question is more one of "which cruise line do you think you could stay on for 100 days and not get bored?)
I would probably be bored at some point but I would give it my best shot
Maybe HAL's smaller ships or Oceania Marina
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Old December 19th, 2009, 11:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Motter View Post
What I would like to see is something like this - smaller cruise ships like Oceania coming down in cruise fares, so i could take a 10-day cruise on those ships rather than a 3600-passenger Carnival ship.
You should have tried Azamara before the prices went up

If Oceania lowered the prices they would eventually have to lower the quality
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