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Old May 20th, 2010, 07:38 PM
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Default Effects of our Economy

Is anyone watching the stock market and our economy?

I would like to hear opinions on what you think about what is happening.

It seems to me that the cruise stocks have been moviong lower again because the onee thing that was boosting our economy - the stock market, has been tanking lately.

The cruise stocks have retreated from their highs:

Royal caribbean from $38.12 (just three weeks ago) to 28.22 -- a loss of TEN POINTS in three weeks.

Carnival from $44.12 to 37.70 today- almost as big a drop.

The fact is that the Euro has shrinkage - and Royal caribbean says it gets almot 50% of its income from Euro. That means less profit merely from currency conversion. Furthermore, crises are now more expensive to Europeans (since the Euro is worth less) and so prices may go up, causing lower demand, or else prices go down for lower profits for the cruise lines.

I think it is important that RCL just ended their price guarantees now - it implies they are plannng to drop prices - which is good for all of us, but not good for them.

The sad thing is that our economy is starting to tank again - jobless claims are back up - Wall Street is way down, homes have not recovered. This whole thing just means more government intervention and more debt which leads to inflation eventually.

It isn't just this country, so I am not pointing fingers (a lot of this had to do with the worldwde real estate bubble of the late Bush era where we sold mortgage-backed securities to Europe and elsewhere).

But even more important - Europe is incredibly in debt, over 100% in Greece and Spain. I am not a big fan of government intervention in Wall Steet, however. To an extent, yes, but telling Goldman they can sell derivatives, etc - its none of their business.

It all affects the cruise lines -

CRUISE PRICES ARE GOING LOWER - I'll bet you a nickel.
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Old May 20th, 2010, 07:59 PM
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It did seem like things were turning around, I liked the fact the our stock market was more stable until recently. Everything worldwide effects our market, we can only hope things get better, can't be soon enough.
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Old May 20th, 2010, 10:12 PM
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Our economy is tanking and will continue to do so until somene finds a way of bringing back jobs. We import a lot more than we export so eventually our debt will become impossible to deal with.
We need produts that say (MADE IN THE USA).

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Old May 20th, 2010, 10:56 PM
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The stock market is really not a leading indicator. It gained back more than a third of it's value from the "last crash", but I don't think that was based on any real additional "worth" of the companies.

It's a global economy, and everything has an affect all over the world. Certainly the crumbling economy of Greece triggered this latest dip, but their are other countries (at the moment Spain and Portugal) who are most likely going to need to "bailed out" in some manner as well.

At this moment, though it might seem odd, it seems the world is bailing out of stocks and jumping to the U.S. dollar for their cover. The U.S. dollar has risen against every other currency during this Euro crisis... which will make imports cheaper, etc. I know because our dollar (Canadian) which was almost at par, dropped 7% against the US dollar in the past week.

The problem is manufacturing of almost anything in the U.S. has slowed to a trickle over the years. The people, as a whole, were concentrating on making money instead of making much else. The problem with producing only money is that you then have to give it away to buy the things you need.

I'm no economist, and there's certainly many more issues to the topic, but if all you make is money, and then the price of what you need goes up, you have to go into debt to pay for your needs.
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Old May 20th, 2010, 11:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuki View Post
The stock market is really not a leading indicator. It gained back more than a third of it's value from the "last crash", but I don't think that was based on any real additional "worth" of the companies.

It's a global economy, and everything has an affect all over the world. Certainly the crumbling economy of Greece triggered this latest dip, but their are other countries (at the moment Spain and Portugal) who are most likely going to need to "bailed out" in some manner as well.

At this moment, though it might seem odd, it seems the world is bailing out of stocks and jumping to the U.S. dollar for their cover. The U.S. dollar has risen against every other currency during this Euro crisis... which will make imports cheaper, etc. I know because our dollar (Canadian) which was almost at par, dropped 7% against the US dollar in the past week.

The problem is manufacturing of almost anything in the U.S. has slowed to a trickle over the years. The people, as a whole, were concentrating on making money instead of making much else. The problem with producing only money is that you then have to give it away to buy the things you need.

I'm no economist, and there's certainly many more issues to the topic, but if all you make is money, and then the price of what you need goes up, you have to go into debt to pay for your needs.
The US Dollar has risen against every other currency during this Euro crisis????

You might want to check your facts on two of the strongest currencies on earth; the Japanese Yen and the Chinese RenMinBi.
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Old May 21st, 2010, 12:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruce Chafkin1 View Post
The US Dollar has risen against every other currency during this Euro crisis????

You might want to check your facts on two of the strongest currencies on earth; the Japanese Yen and the Chinese RenMinBi.
Well Bruce, you're probably right.. I didn't check EVERY currency. Thanks for your contribution to the discussion.

I did say I'm not an economist, but I do recall that in the not too distant past the Japanese economy was in turmoil. Obviously nothing stays the same. There's all sorts of factors that effect economic stability.

I do know the Chinese are now out buying up "everything in site". In the long run we'll see how that works out for them. But then they don't have a population to answer to about their decisions.

In reference to cruising, while Paul was talking about cruises getting less expensive, demand in Europe down, etc. ... how much do you think the cruise lines are, or stand to save, if the price of oil keeps dropping. I know some "experts" are predicting a $40 barrel before this round ends.
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Old May 21st, 2010, 03:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuki View Post

The problem is manufacturing of almost anything in the U.S. has slowed to a trickle over the years. The people, as a whole, were concentrating on making money instead of making much else. The problem with producing only money is that you then have to give it away to buy the things you need.

.
Kuki you hit the nail on the head. A country without manufacturing can not have a healthy economy.

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Old May 21st, 2010, 12:43 PM
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This is something I watch a great deal. I DO think the stock market is a leading indicator, it is not a "true" meter, however. It is a foggy mirror into the future.

Yes, the Yen has held up best, but now that the European markets are closed the Euro rebounded pretty well from its weekly low which I am sure is a HUGE relief to the cruise lines. It is back at $1.24, add that to the price oil dropping below $70/barrel and things are looking pretty rosy for the cruise lines - at least comared to how they looked a few days when Europe was in free fall.

yes, the Euro is far below where it was last year, and it could fall again, but if the worst is over then things are not too bad.

Our stock market doesn't seem to need much incentive to go higher, it is what Americans "make" - money. We have always been the world's bank. Yes, we screwed up mightily with the mortgage backed seciruty faisco which we exported worldwide, but other than that we still have something that makes America great - Wall Street.

Of course, I am afraid too many politicians don't get that and want to kill the golden goose - but some do get it - Barney Franks for example. I may not agree with him, but at least he understands that Goldman Sachs has to do what they do because that is Wall Street does - it makes methods for people to make money on both sides of the market (up & down).
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Old May 21st, 2010, 01:12 PM
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Mo - the fact that oil is dropping with summer aproaching and that spill (which is really a "drop in the bucket" compared to the world oil supply) woul dhav e been a good excuse for oil to go higher - is a miracle.

They are saying it could go to $40 - mostly because of the week European economy. If the European market gets really soft it could have a lot of bad repercussions for us. But as you said - it is odd that we worry about the Dollar getting too strong for exports when we really don't export anything.

What we need here in the U.S, is a housing recovery. When the middle class starts to feel like they have perceived wealth again this economy will rebound. The sales are up, but the prices are still dropping.

Mortgage rates are historically low, but people are not getting loans because they banks are - whatever.

What are the banks thinking these days? They have zillions of repo homes and yet they don't want to lend money to home buyers. What is that all about?

Anyway - we are ending this week on an up note, but who knows what next week may bring.

I see some incredible bargains in stocks these days -
The CRUISE LINES: Royal Caribbean was at $38 less than 30 days ago - it has fallen as low as 28.

Carnival: was at $44 on April 25, today it is at $35

(BTW: I am NOT saying anyone should buy these stocks here - they could still go lower).


Google is back at $467 ! That stock was well over 620 in January. This is Google - a money machine.

Apple has most estinates at $360 and it is selling at $243 right now.
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Old May 21st, 2010, 02:03 PM
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I've been investing in Mexico. Yes, you heard right.

Groupo Bimbo just opened their first plant in China. Also Fomento Economico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. has been 'berry berry' good to me.


Viva Tortillas!!
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Old May 21st, 2010, 02:30 PM
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Does this explain why I've suddenly begun to receive mailers from Regent, Seabourne and Crystal?
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Old May 22nd, 2010, 08:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_rd View Post
Does this explain why I've suddenly begun to receive mailers from Regent, Seabourne and Crystal?
Bob, they figured out that you can afford to go on those luxury lines.

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Old May 23rd, 2010, 10:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuki View Post
Well Bruce, you're probably right.. I didn't check EVERY currency. Thanks for your contribution to the discussion.

I did say I'm not an economist, but I do recall that in the not too distant past the Japanese economy was in turmoil. Obviously nothing stays the same. There's all sorts of factors that effect economic stability.

I do know the Chinese are now out buying up "everything in site". In the long run we'll see how that works out for them. But then they don't have a population to answer to about their decisions.

In reference to cruising, while Paul was talking about cruises getting less expensive, demand in Europe down, etc. ... how much do you think the cruise lines are, or stand to save, if the price of oil keeps dropping. I know some "experts" are predicting a $40 barrel before this round ends.
Chinese are financing everyone. Conquest through foreclosure?
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Old May 24th, 2010, 12:55 PM
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Do you think that the oil spill will have a big impact on the bottom line of the cruise industry?
I am certainly concerned.

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Old May 24th, 2010, 12:59 PM
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Well - so far the spill is affectin certain US ports but the ships do not seem to have a problem going around the slick. I certainly could affect it soon, though.

But as long as ships can get below the slick to their ports of call I actually see it as sort of a positive, at least in terms cruises being able to offer vacations in ports of call not affected by the slick - rather than someone spending a week in New Orleans or Key West.

My fear is that New Orlans will be shut down, or that ships will require cleaning after they use the port.

Ships can always be relocated, if they must (except Oasis)
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Old May 24th, 2010, 05:09 PM
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Royal Caribbean at $27.93

Carnival at $35.48

The dow just broke below the February low which is a very bearish signal.
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Old May 25th, 2010, 12:41 PM
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Paul, I don't understand why the Oasis can't re-locate if they had to. I know that you are very informed on everything about cruising. If you can I would like to know exactly what they would have to do to re-locate the Oasis.
Of course if they had to close Ft. lauderdale that would be a big blow to the whole cruise industry.

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Old May 25th, 2010, 03:31 PM
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I am just referring to the extra work Ft Lauderdale had to do just to accomodate the ship. It could move - but it would take time. There are only so many ports that have proper facilities to accomodate it.

Every place it docks had to do upgrades to its facilities, so if they needed a new homeport it could take several months to ramp up.

I also assume they have some kind of a contract with Ft Lauderdale.
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Old May 25th, 2010, 07:11 PM
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Kuki,

Quote:
Originally Posted by You View Post
The stock market is really not a leading indicator. It gained back more than a third of it's value from the "last crash", but I don't think that was based on any real additional "worth" of the companies.
Actually, stocks tend to be a leading indicator EXCEPT when emotions take over, resulting in either a bubble or a panic.

>> In a bubble, speculators buy on perceived momentum and thus drive up the price of the affected stocks artificially until they run out of cash, when the bubble bursts and the prices of the affected stocks plummet back to the levels that their fundamentals can sustain.

>> And in a panic, speculators react to bad news, or to a perception that bad news may be imminent, by dumping stocks that they fear that the bad news might afflict. When reason returns, which typically may take several days to several weeks, the affected stocks begin to recover to their normal values.

Here, I should note that panics typically create fantastic opportunities to buy shares of sound companies at phenomenal bargains. The last panic depressed shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. to a bottom of $5.50 per share, and the stock went over $38.00 per share before the current panic. Those of us who "backed up the truck" when it was cheap got a nice return!

Quote:
Originally Posted by You
It's a global economy, and everything has an affect all over the world. Certainly the crumbling economy of Greece triggered this latest dip, but their are other countries (at the moment Spain and Portugal) who are most likely going to need to "bailed out" in some manner as well.

At this moment, though it might seem odd, it seems the world is bailing out of stocks and jumping to the U.S. dollar for their cover. The U.S. dollar has risen against every other currency during this Euro crisis... which will make imports cheaper, etc. I know because our dollar (Canadian) which was almost at par, dropped 7% against the US dollar in the past week.
Your analysis here is right on!

Actually, I'm disappointed that the "looney" has fallen off par with the "greenback." I would like a dollar to be a dollar regardless of which country issues it. The Bahamian and Bermudan dollars are completely interchangeable with the "greenback," making conversion very easy.

Norm.
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Old October 7th, 2010, 10:50 AM
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It's fun to read this thread. It really shows that no one can predict the future. Oil is at $83/barrel. The Dollar is trading at: $1.39 against the Euro. The Yuan (Chinese currency) floats with the dollar so that is not a good indicator.

Cruise line stocks are back over $30, with Carnival touching the $40 mark, and other than seasonal lower pricing the cost of cruises is about the same as it was in May.

Oh well:

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Old October 7th, 2010, 02:12 PM
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A month ago people were prediciting doom & gloom - we had a "hindenburg signal" in technical analysis that said stocks would tank in September. The market had the best september ever.

However - we still don't know where things are going. October can also be a bad month.

I got out of the market completely last month and missed a huge rally but I may be glad of that within a week or two.

Congress left without acting on the Bush tax cuts. Some people are predicting that may be a catalyst for a stock market crash.

Something has to change - are you guys as tired of this economy as I am???
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Old October 7th, 2010, 02:47 PM
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As of right now I'm happy. Yesterday, I collected some excellent returns on North Dakota oil stocks and Carnival. I also sold a large amount of gold that I've held since '09 and made a nice profit on that.

I still have a number of equities in banking, grocery, technology, travel and China that I will hang on to. I will keep those where they are and I don't plan on jumping back in for awhile.

I think I'll go on a cruise.


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Old October 13th, 2010, 09:17 AM
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I have never invested in stocks ,bonds or securities .Less worries
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Old October 13th, 2010, 07:10 PM
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Henry43,

Quote:
Originally Posted by You View Post
I have never invested in stocks ,bonds or securities .Less worries
Stocks are the only investment that has historically outpaced inflation over the long term. From 1800 to 2000, the NYSE generated an average compound annual growth rate of 10.8%. Ajusted for inflation, it's still over 8%. This performance includes the losses of every company that went bankrupt.

But if you don't want to do your homework to research individual stocks, a low cost total stock market index fund will nearly match the market over the long term.

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