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-   -   Let's talk stock market (http://www.cruisemates.com/forum/chit-chat-cruisers/394398-lets-talk-stock-market.html)

katlady January 29th, 2013 02:28 PM

Let's talk stock market
 
So I watch the stock market everyday:D and I have some shares in SPY with is an exchange traded fund based on the S & P 500. The S & P 500 is a exchange of the 500 largest stocks in the USA. So watching that stock tells me how the market is doing.

These past two weeks the stock market has been in a good mood.:mrgreen: Always going up. So I hedged by SPY with a stock that shorts the S & P 500 called SH. That basically means if the S & P 500 stocks start dropping my share in SH with increase. I know the market will drop soon. I just don't know when and how much. I thought we might have some stock watchers on this board.

I'm thinking of selling my SPY since I have a nice gain and it's seems to be at a high. Then holding my SH for when the stock market falls on it's butt.

What do you guys think?
Is the stock market at a high?
Do you think it will fall soon?

Don't worry I won't get mad if you're wrong. Everyone's wrong about stocks at some point.;) I just like chatting about it and my hubby always looks confused and bored when I talk stock market.LOL

BTW this is not a political thread it's a financial one. Please stay on topic. Thank you.

ship2shore January 29th, 2013 03:06 PM

I dont have the stomach for playing the market.

I prefer to be more hands-on with my investments, hence I can be called a "venture capitalist", I guess. I am "on the board" (so to speak) of several local enterprises I have a stake in.

katlady January 29th, 2013 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ship2shore (Post 1462857)
I dont have the stomach for playing the market.

I prefer to be more hands-on with my investments, hence I can be called a "venture capitalist", I guess. I am "on the board" (so to speak) of several local enterprises I have a stake in.

Like the limited parnter in an LP?

Manuel January 29th, 2013 04:43 PM

Kat, I believe that the market will go higher but it's allways good to sell when you have made a nice gain.
I watch the market closely and the way things are going the market should rise but a disaster somewhere could reverse the trend.

I could be in trouble it the market sinks because both my son and my son-in-law purchased some stock based on my advice.

TM

PS. the above comments are not meant to be political

aerospace January 29th, 2013 05:03 PM

You own a fund and make money if the market rises.
You short the market to make money when it goes down.
Isn't that like betting on red and black and making nothing in the long run.
Double zero is the fees you pay to do this.

Not a winning strategy IMHO.

katlady January 29th, 2013 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manuel (Post 1462868)
Kat, I believe that the market will go higher but it's allways good to sell when you have made a nice gain.
I watch the market closely and the way things are going the market should rise but a disaster somewhere could reverse the trend.

I could be in trouble it the market sinks because both my son and my son-in-law purchased some stock based on my advice.

TM

PS. the above comments are not meant to be political

TM your good those comments weren't political. No worries. I think you are right about selling at this point.:mrgreen:

katlady January 29th, 2013 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerospace (Post 1462874)
You own a fund and make money if the market rises.
You short the market to make money when it goes down.
Isn't that like betting on red and black and making nothing in the long run.
Double zero is the fees you pay to do this.

Not a winning strategy IMHO.

That would be true if SPY and SH were purchased together. I bought SPY a while ago when the market was in the toliet I picked it up at about $135 per share it's at $150.

I only picked up SH to short the market because it got to a record high. So when I got SH the SPY was at about $149 and I think it's ready to drop. I'm looking at an exit on SPY. Then hold my short postitions until I make a nice gain when the market drops. Hedging your position is done a lot in the opinions world you do some puts and calls in order to hedge your position and limit your losses. No worries my sale of SPY will cover all my fees.

I'm worried about getting caught in a short squeeze on SH. But right now the stock isn't moving enough up or down for that to be a real worry. In fact the investors seem nervous like they are waiting for the other shoe to drop. See how sharp the gain is I think it will drop back down to at least $140. My guess I could be wrong it's happened before.;)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

Donna January 29th, 2013 08:30 PM

I too watch it daily, my retirement depends on it and while it has been nice the way it has finally been going up, I sometimes think an adjustment may come soon, although I hope not. I like it nice and steady and can't wait to see it hit 14,000 soon?? Got my fingers crossed. When the market took a big dive years ago, just kept what I had an hoped that it would come back, years later, it did and now I want to keep it :-)

Manuel January 29th, 2013 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donna (Post 1462887)
I too watch it daily, my retirement depends on it and while it has been nice the way it has finally been going up, I sometimes think an adjustment may come soon, although I hope not. I like it nice and steady and can't wait to see it hit 14,000 soon?? Got my fingers crossed. When the market took a big dive years ago, just kept what I had an hoped that it would come back, years later, it did and now I want to keep it :-)

Donna, I hope that you keep what you have and make some more.

TM

katlady January 29th, 2013 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donna (Post 1462887)
I too watch it daily, my retirement depends on it and while it has been nice the way it has finally been going up, I sometimes think an adjustment may come soon, although I hope not. I like it nice and steady and can't wait to see it hit 14,000 soon?? Got my fingers crossed. When the market took a big dive years ago, just kept what I had an hoped that it would come back, years later, it did and now I want to keep it :-)

It took me a minute, but now I see you are watch the Dow Jones Industrial Average that is at 13,954.42. Depending on how close you are to retirement you might want to start easing out of the stock market into bank CDs with less risk. I plan on doing that about 5 years from retirement. Right now I'm about 15 years or more away from retirement.:(

Lakers Fan January 30th, 2013 05:11 PM

I lost money in the stock market in 1968 and that was it for me.

AR January 30th, 2013 09:14 PM

We're heavily invested, but never make day-to-day decisions like the one you're talking about, Kat. I know that I'm not smart enough to give you a reliable answer.

We've been investing regularly since 1969, and in my case for a number of years before that. Instead of dealing with the kind of question you're asking, we concentrate on maintaining a diversified portfolio across a very wide spectrum of asset classes. We rebalance based on performance and prospects regularly, and have always had good advisers to help us navigate the winding river. We never make big killings, but we never get killed either, and over half a century the trendline has always been up significantly. We've never sought or taken advice from anyone except experts we trust and who are willing to accept fiduciary responsibility (in other words, not stockbrokers). This approach has served us well, let us live comfortably, put the kids through private university, and let us both retire at or before age 55. Most important of all, neither of us has ever lost a wink of sleep over money, and we've never argued about it either. And it's all because from our earliest years we took the long view, defined the destination carefully and specifically, then made and executed a practical plan to reach it.

It is a shame that people like Henry dismiss the idea of investing after one bad experience. 1968 was a tough year--I remember it well. But it's true that some people simply don't have the temperament for investing, others don't have the stomach to weather losses. In the long run they're the losers, because their money never reaches its potential.

For what it's worth. . .

Lakers Fan January 31st, 2013 09:31 AM

I rather spend money in casinos :)

katlady January 31st, 2013 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AR (Post 1462989)
We're heavily invested, but never make day-to-day decisions like the one you're talking about, Kat. I know that I'm not smart enough to give you a reliable answer.

We've been investing regularly since 1969, and in my case for a number of years before that. Instead of dealing with the kind of question you're asking, we concentrate on maintaining a diversified portfolio across a very wide spectrum of asset classes. We rebalance based on performance and prospects regularly, and have always had good advisers to help us navigate the winding river. We never make big killings, but we never get killed either, and over half a century the trendline has always been up significantly. We've never sought or taken advice from anyone except experts we trust and who are willing to accept fiduciary responsibility (in other words, not stockbrokers). This approach has served us well, let us live comfortably, put the kids through private university, and let us both retire at or before age 55. Most important of all, neither of us has ever lost a wink of sleep over money, and we've never argued about it either. And it's all because from our earliest years we took the long view, defined the destination carefully and specifically, then made and executed a practical plan to reach it.

It is a shame that people like Henry dismiss the idea of investing after one bad experience. 1968 was a tough year--I remember it well. But it's true that some people simply don't have the temperament for investing, others don't have the stomach to weather losses. In the long run they're the losers, because their money never reaches its potential.

For what it's worth. . .

When the stock market declines I view it like a good sale on shoes and buy up those undervalued stocks. I enjoy a nice drop in the market as I'm a dollar cost average investor and each drop lower my overall average price per share.I like the ETF like SPY because they are already diverifised for me and pay out dividends. I do also invest in bonds and international stocks.

This is the first time I have taken a short position on any stock I usually go long. But right now I feel the SPY is overvalued and won't buy it at this price. I will wait until the decline then pick it up on sale. But I figured while I wait not try the short position. Time will tell if that was a good decision or not. A/R I agree with you that the stock market can be difficult for people. It's so easy to panic an sell your stock at a loss. I was in SPY for a while and the market dropped on me and stay down for about a year. So I just waited and collected dividends until the market improved. I don't retire for a while so I can be patient.

AR January 31st, 2013 05:03 PM

Yes, in investing, temperament is so important, and it seems to me like you've got what it takes in that department. And of course, some people do well on their own. And I can't shoot any obvious holes in what you're saying (unless, of course, it doesn't work!).

I'm just a big fan of diversification.

Manuel January 31st, 2013 05:48 PM

Kat, you are pretty savy and I bet that you will do OK in the stock market.

TM

Donna February 1st, 2013 06:44 PM

Ya Hoooo,
The Dow closed today over the 14,000 mark, a major milestone, especially with the unemployment figures still not good....

AR February 1st, 2013 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donna (Post 1463200)
Ya Hoooo,
The Dow closed today over the 14,000 mark, a major milestone, especially with the unemployment figures still not good....

Right! I've long since concluded that the market doesn't really track with the unemployment numbers (even though a lot of pundits are attributing today's rally to the jobs numbers).

Let's face it: it is the job of the "job creators" to create as few jobs as possible. That's not cynical; it's capitalism. The more employers learned from the hard times just past about computer power, outsourcing, robotics, using bankruptcy to abrogate contracts, and just plain doing more with less, the better it is for stockholders and the worse it is for the unemployed. If anything, the relationship between the numbers over time might well be inverse.

Even worse for the chronically unemployed, many of their skills are now obsolete.

There is a big-time difference between this recovery and the ones before. I feel sorry for those caught in the trap. It's unfortunate but true: it's not the job of capitalism to be charitable.

katlady February 1st, 2013 09:18 PM

I'm glad I put a trailing stop on SPY and didn't just sell it. I'm trailing the stock by $1 so if the stock drops a full dollar my stop will trigger and sell my shares. Today the stock went up so my stop didn't trigger.

Today's rally kind of makes me look like an Idjit. But hey I'm patient.;) What goes up must come down, that's just facts. Come on stock market fall on your butt for Katlady!!! Mamma needs a new pair of shoes.:twisted:

katlady February 4th, 2013 05:56 PM

There it is I was waiting to patiently. My trailing stop triggered at $150.30 today and the market trended lower. Hopefully it can keep this horrible performance up this week.:D Then I can sell my short positions and go long again.;) I feel more comfortable in the long position.

AR February 4th, 2013 08:46 PM

Good luck!

Pretty soon you'll be into that nanosecond algorithm stuff.


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