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  #1 (permalink)  
Old August 27th, 2006, 01:55 AM
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Default Ernesto - all future updates will be in this thread.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 270256
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR
WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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Old August 27th, 2006, 09:27 AM
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Ernesto now a hurricane - Cat 1





000
WTNT35 KNHC 271159
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO...NOW A HURRICANE...APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA
OF HAITI...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI
FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Old August 27th, 2006, 12:28 PM
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Lisa,
You are SO good. You help out with everything. Thank you!
Marty the Tampa gal, hoping not to end up in OZ for her vacation
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Old August 27th, 2006, 01:01 PM
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We are watching Ernesto very carefully. If it curves too much it will come into Central Florida like the others did a couple of years ago.
Thanks for the graphics. They help.

Lynne
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Old August 27th, 2006, 03:14 PM
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The graphics in the first two posts will automatically update.

Hurricane ERNESTO Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT35 KNHC 271758
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...MAY HAVE
WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
RANMA... OLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Old August 28th, 2006, 02:41 AM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 280559
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR RAGGED
ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Old August 28th, 2006, 09:05 AM
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What a surprise -- going to bed after the 11 p.m. advisory to see Ernesto heading toward a landfall between Fort Myers and Tampa ...
Waking up to see the 5 a.m. advisory showing the storm heading up through Central Florida.

That puts us on the right side ... not good.

We'll be glued to the NHC Web site [where the above posted graphics and advisories come from] to catch the latest news.

Let's hope Ernesto continues to weaken and falls apart. Fingers crossed!
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Old August 28th, 2006, 11:41 AM
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Well, the 11 a.m. advisory shows a shift to the east.
Now it's in my back yard.

@#$%!
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Old August 28th, 2006, 02:21 PM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 281734
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1
WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOLGUIN CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
RE-STRENGTHENING WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH
OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.7 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Old August 29th, 2006, 02:56 AM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 290556
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CANAGUA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES ...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WATER
LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...22.2 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Lisa
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Old August 29th, 2006, 03:50 PM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 291744
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND/OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Lisa
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Old August 30th, 2006, 12:39 AM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 300253
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...ERNESTO LINGERING JUST OFF OF PLANTATION KEY...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA IS ALSO
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS
JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Lisa
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Old August 30th, 2006, 01:22 PM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 301507
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT...

...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND
BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old August 31st, 2006, 01:26 AM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 310232
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...EXPECTED
TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST.
THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY.

NOAA BUOY 41009 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old August 31st, 2006, 02:18 PM
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Default Ernesto regaining strenth - almost a cat 1 hurricane

000
WTNT35 KNHC 311749 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CORRECTED FOR REPEAT SECTION INTENSITY...

...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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  #16 (permalink)  
Old September 1st, 2006, 02:47 AM
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 010600
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR
INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH
CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987
MB...29.15 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Old September 2nd, 2006, 03:17 AM
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
Posts: 9,486
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Default This is the LAST Ernesto update - now extra-tropical

000
WTNT35 KWNH 020302
TCPAT5


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 34 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL...NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW
JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA.

AT 11 PM EDT FRIDAY...03Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR
20 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA.

THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS NOW BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 10 PM EDT

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.65
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 5.84
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43
NORFOLK 10.00
UPPER SHERANDO 9.47
LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25
CHESAPEAKE 8.93
TOANO 8.73
JAMESTOWN 8.25
CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00
GWYNN ISLAND 8.00
DEVILS KNOB 7.80
CARSON 7.70
WINDSOR 7.63
YALE 7.50
PORTSMOUTH 7.11
HAMPTON 7.00

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
CHARLES TOWN 2.25
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

SNOW HILL 7.19
HOLLYWOOD 6.13
PRINCESS ANNE 5.90
SALISBURY 5.60
CAROLINE 5.38

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT FRIDAY POSITION...37.3 NORTH...76.8
WEST...NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS SYSTEM.

TRIMARCO

FORECAST POSITIONS
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