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  #1 (permalink)  
Old August 29th, 2006, 03:52 PM
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Default Hurricane John - Eastern Pacific

This one may affect Cabo and the Baja peninsula.....



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291752
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...JOHN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO
EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH


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Old August 29th, 2006, 07:36 PM
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In just a few hours John has grown into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane and is parallelling the Mexican coast. Lots of rain and flooding are occuring.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292044
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...HURRICANE JOHN IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...99.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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Old August 30th, 2006, 12:41 AM
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300245
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND FROM
LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES
...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.2 N...100.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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Old August 30th, 2006, 01:24 PM
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John is now a Category 4 Hurricane......


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301435
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...HURRICANE JOHN NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES
...260 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...
SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON RECENT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old August 31st, 2006, 01:27 AM
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Looks like Cabo San Lucas will get hit on Friday......


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310258
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF
MEXICO...STRONG RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL STATES OF MICHOACAN
AND COLIMA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN
BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO
MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM
PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN
COAST. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING
THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...104.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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Old August 31st, 2006, 02:33 PM
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 311755
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO
CORRIENTES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN
BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
...100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLAS MARIAS.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND APPROACH CABO
SAN LUCAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
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Old September 1st, 2006, 02:50 AM
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 010545
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...JOHN HEADING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...WARNINGS ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO DISCONTINUED...

AT 11 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN
EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 130
MILES...210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP
TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...21.5 N...108.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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Lisa
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Old September 2nd, 2006, 03:20 AM
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I wonder how Cabo San Lucas fared...............

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 020556
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...JOHN LASHING THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...CENTER NEARING LA PAZ...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA....AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. THIS POSITION
IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JOHN REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL
MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...23.8 N...109.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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Lisa
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Old September 2nd, 2006, 03:00 PM
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
Posts: 9,488
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 021741
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...JOHN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO
GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
INTERACTS WITH LAND.

JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.6 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Lisa
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Old September 3rd, 2006, 01:21 AM
Lisa's Avatar
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Admiral
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
Posts: 9,488
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John now a Tropical Storm and weakening.

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 030235
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...JOHN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 40 MILES...
65 KM...NORTH OF CIUDAD CONSTITUCION MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JOHN OVER OR NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...25.6 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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