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  #1 (permalink)  
Old September 18th, 2007, 01:55 PM
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Default Tropical Storm Ivo - Eastern Pacific

Could be one to watch............

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Old September 19th, 2007, 01:59 AM
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No public advisory will be issued until Ivo is a threat to land......just keep watching the map above - it refreshes automatically.
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Old September 20th, 2007, 01:52 AM
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200231
TCDEP2
HURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
4.0 AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASSAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF
CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL. ON THIS BASIS...IVO HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A 65 KNOT HURRICANE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IVO TO
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR LOSE THE CYCLONE BEYOND DAY 3. ONLY THE
GFDL KEEPS IVO AS A HURRICANE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE GFDL
RUNS.

IVO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL BE ERODED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. IVO
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY AND THEN TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOW THE
SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.1N 112.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old September 22nd, 2007, 02:27 AM
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220242
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE FORMATION OF A SHARP WESTERN
EDGE AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A FORTUITOUS 0028 UTC SSM/I PASS INDICATED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH A DROP IN T-NUMBERS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS.

IVO IS STILL MOVING RATHER SLOWLY BUT THE SSM/I PASS SUGGESTS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXTRAPOLATED
TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/5. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
SPLIT IN TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK OF IVO. THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS MODELS REMAIN THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS BY MOVING A DEEP
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
ALREADY BECOME A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WEAKENING OF IVO...THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THESE MODELS MOVE THE SHEARED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF IVO TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TURNING EAST AND STAYING SOUTH OF BAJA...POSSIBLY
DISSIPATING IN 3-4 DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND SHOWS VERY SLOW
MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS SHIPS GUIDANCE...JUST IN CASE
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
BAJA. IF THE SHEAR REALLY IS MAKING A KNOCK-OUT PUNCH...WHICH
APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION...THEN IVO
WOULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 20.4N 113.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.2N 112.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 112.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 22.6N 111.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 23.1N 111.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 24.2N 110.3W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0000Z 24.5N 110.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BLAKE
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Old September 23rd, 2007, 01:43 AM
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Default Ivo weakening

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230234
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

...IVO BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
IVO WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IVO REACHES BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old September 23rd, 2007, 02:30 PM
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Default Ivo weakening......beginning to dissipate

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231734
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007

...IVO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW...

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS
REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND IVO COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old September 24th, 2007, 02:33 AM
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Default Last Post on Ivo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232032
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007

...IVO DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF BAJA...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...110.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IVO.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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