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  #1 (permalink)  
Old September 29th, 2007, 02:24 PM
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Default Tropical Storm Juliette - Eastern Pacific

No threat to land...................

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Old September 30th, 2007, 02:41 AM
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIETTE IS AT
LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT. THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WHICH IS ALLOWING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NONE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

JULIETTE HAS JUMPED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS
THE 6 HR MOTION FROM 18Z-00Z WAS 355/4. SINCE THEN...THE STORM
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 335/7. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
STEER JULIETTE IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR AS
LONG AS THE CYCLONE RETAINS VERTICAL DEPTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A
WESTWARD TURN AND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...BUT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TURN AS JULIETTE
WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO
PERSIST OR INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE JULIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 36-48
HR...AND PROBABLY SPEED THE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45
KT...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR. MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AN EARLIER DISSIPATION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE
JULIETTE WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.2N 112.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 113.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 114.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 22.0N 115.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 04/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 1st, 2007, 12:57 AM
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Default

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010245
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT PERSISTS AND THE MOST RECENT BURST EXHIBITS CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED AND HARD
TO PRECISELY LOCATE...MAKING SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AND DISPARATE...WITH 00Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 TO 55 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS
IMMINENT. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY
FASTER PACE OF DECLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.

JULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ROUGHLY
320/9...IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST. AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD
DECELERATE IN THE WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST TAKES JULIETTE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW ON A PATH THAT BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...ALONG THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO
A HALT IN A FEW DAYS AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION.
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Old October 1st, 2007, 02:31 PM
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011435
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007

AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE
CENTER OF JULIETTE...WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
RATHER LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. A
LATE-ARRIVING QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS.
ASSUMING WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SOUTHERLY
SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
JULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND
TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...JULIETTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECELERATE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA.

WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.
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Old October 2nd, 2007, 01:20 AM
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Default Juliette dissipating........................

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020236
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007

THE DEEP CONVECTION STARTED SEPARATING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT
ABOUT 18Z. NO NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP SINCE THEN...AND THE
REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE JUST CIRRUS DEBRIS RACING NORTHWARD.
THE EXPOSED SWIRL DOES NOT PRESENTLY QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... AND REDEVELOPMENT OF A MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY...DUE TO CONTINUING STRONG SOUTHERLY
SHEAR...AND SINCE THE UNDERLYING SSTS ARE QUICKLY COOLING AS THE
SYSTEM PROCEEDS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/8. IN MARGINAL
CIRCUMSTANCES WE MIGHT CONTINUE ADVISORIES AS A PRECAUTION...BUT IN
THIS CASE THE CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT I AM COMFORTABLE MAKING THIS
THE LAST ADVISORY ON JULIETTE. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO
DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL IT LIKELY
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
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