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  #1 (permalink)  
Old October 15th, 2007, 01:20 AM
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Default Tropical Storm Kiko - Eastern Pacific

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Old October 15th, 2007, 03:25 PM
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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 151448
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Old October 16th, 2007, 02:23 AM
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WTPZ45 KNHC 160240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A SINGLE RAGGED BAND ABOUT 120 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...WITH SMALL AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 18Z...AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER...THE
MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MEAN CENTER HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC
GYRE AT LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER-LEVELS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE NET FLOW ACROSS THE CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE TRACK OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION
THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...A COMMON THEME IS A
CONTINUATION OF A CYCLONIC LOOP...ENDING WITH SOME NET WESTWARD
MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...ALSO SHOWS A SMALL LOOP...BUT WITH
LITTLE NET DISPLACEMENT OVER THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION VERY
CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS NOT
FAR FROM THE STABLE STRATO-CUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT HOW THE
UPPER EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE GFS MAINTAINING THE SHEAR...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET LESSEN IT
SOMEWHAT. BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 50
KT...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS THE GFS/SHIPS SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.7N 109.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 14.7N 109.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 108.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.9N 108.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.2N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 110.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Old October 16th, 2007, 03:41 PM
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161441
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB AND AN OBSERVATION OF 35 KNOTS FROM SHIP A8GT6 SUGGEST THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. KIKO IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

KIKO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME BRINGING KIKO
EASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND OTHERS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
FORCING KIKO WESTWARD. MOST OF THE TIME...THIS MODEL SPLIT IS AN
INDICATION THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK.
THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION OR A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL AND SLOW TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.2N 108.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old October 17th, 2007, 02:14 AM
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

KIKO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES...
AS ITS CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...AS DOES AN AMSU PASS FROM 2039Z. HOWEVER...A HIGH-RES
ASCAT PASS FROM 1716Z INDICATED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. AS THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY
SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT
30 KT.

KIKO IS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT DUE TO THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MONSOONAL TROUGH...IN WHICH KIKO IS
EMBEDDED...AND A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED AND KIKO SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS...UKMET...HWRF...AND GFDL.

WHILE THE SSTS REMAIN A RATHER TOASTY 29C UNDERNEATH KIKO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND
THE DECAY-SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING KIKO TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WIN OUT AND KIKO
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THE DECREASED SHEAR KICKS IN...AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.0N 107.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.1N 107.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 106.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 107.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 16.2N 107.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
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Old October 17th, 2007, 03:31 PM
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171447
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KIKO IS VERY HARD TO FIND THIS MORNING.
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES ALONG WITH RECENT AMSU AND QUIKSCAT DATA
SHOW THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THE ADVISORY POSITION IS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ELONGATION NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT
HINT THAT THE ACTUAL CENTER MAY BE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...WHILE HAVING RAIN CONTAMINATION PROBLEMS...SUGGESTS
AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT
AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 045/4. KIKO IS SOUTH OF A
BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE ON FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR AS THE U.S. TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW KIKO TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN AS A SECOND
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DO TO
KIKO. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEP ENOUGH TROUGH TO CAUSE KIKO TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS...THE BAM MODELS...AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW KIKO MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.
THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER.
IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.

KIKO CONTINUES UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24
HR...WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BEYOND
THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF ALL FORECAST KIKO TO REACH 55-60 KT BY 120
HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL.

SOME RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...AND CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
TRACK...MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.2N 106.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 106.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 16.7N 106.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 108.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 18th, 2007, 03:47 AM
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

NEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE FIRED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO AFTER
IT WAS EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS A RATHER ELONGATED SHAPE AND IT IS UNKNOWN HOW
SEPARATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FROM THE ITCZ. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THIS
SYSTEM WILL ABATE IN A DAY OR TWO WHICH...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IN FACT THE
SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISHEVELED PATTERN ON
SATELLITE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE STORM SHOWS MORE SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION BEFORE JUMPING ON THE HURRICANE KIKO BANDWAGON.
HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS AT DAYS 3-5 IN
DEFERENCE TO OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7...WHICH INDICATES A SMALL TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. KIKO APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT
UP IN LOW-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD FORCE THE STORM TO TURN LEFTWARD WITH TIME AND CAUSE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE BIG QUESTION
IS WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TOO CLOSE BY THEN TO MISS MEXICO.
MOST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO...
ESPECIALLY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN. THE ECMWF/GFDN/NOGAPS/UKMET
MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER OR CLOSE TO MEXICO DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SOME THREAT TO
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IF THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.8N 104.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.2N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 103.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 103.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 105.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.0N 107.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Old October 18th, 2007, 03:28 PM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181747
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...CENTER OF KIKO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF KIKO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION......16.6 N...103.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 19th, 2007, 02:05 AM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190251
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO REFORMING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. WARNINGS AND WATCHES COULD BE
ADJUSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIKO IS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KIKO IS FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND KIKO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...104.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Old October 19th, 2007, 03:25 PM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191746
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...SLOWLY ORGANIZING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 490
MILES...790 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 20th, 2007, 02:11 AM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 200232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO HAS NOT STRENGTHEN YET...ITS FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN...

AT 8 PM PDT...03000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...220 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 445 MILES
...715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCERTAIN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...105.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old October 20th, 2007, 03:36 PM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 201749
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...KIKO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF KIKO OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 21st, 2007, 03:47 AM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 210236
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...FUTURE OF KIKO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF KIKO OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.9 N...107.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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Old October 21st, 2007, 03:20 PM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211444
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...KIKO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 295
MILES...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICAN COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND NAYARIT.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.3 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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Old October 22nd, 2007, 01:27 AM
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Hi,

I am concerned about my sisters who are on a cruise headed towards the Mexican Riviera. They are to dock Monday morning in Cabo San Lucas. Could you please help me and let me know if they are okay since they are headed directly towards the effects of Kiko.
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Old October 22nd, 2007, 03:20 AM
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They should be fine. Kiko is about 250 miles southwest of Cabo and moving to the west-northwest and weakening as it is moving out to open sea away from Cabo. They might have some rougher seas than normal, but they will be ok.
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Old October 22nd, 2007, 03:21 AM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 220245
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...KIKO TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...255 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
KIKO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...19.6 N...108.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Old October 22nd, 2007, 04:17 AM
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Default Thank You

Thank You so much for the reassurance. They will be heading more southbound. Tuesday they dock in Mazatlan. Again, thank you. I really appreciate your response.
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Old October 22nd, 2007, 04:32 AM
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Kiko will be well west of Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta. No worries there.

And you are welcome!
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Old October 22nd, 2007, 01:02 PM
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 220832
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007

...KIKO CONTINUES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BYPASS
BAJA...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KIKO WILL
PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...19.6 N...108.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED ON KIKO UNLESS A THREAT
TO MEXICO REDEVELOPS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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