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  #1 (permalink)  
Old July 20th, 2008, 04:14 PM
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Default Caribbean - Hurricane Dolly






000
WTNT34 KNHC 201758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Old July 21st, 2008, 03:07 AM
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Default

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210554
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Old July 21st, 2008, 05:23 AM
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Glad I am not out there this week.
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Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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Old July 21st, 2008, 02:18 PM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 211800
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...22.8 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Old July 22nd, 2008, 01:29 AM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 220302
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN
MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN
FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...515 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 435 MILES...695
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...92.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Old July 22nd, 2008, 02:15 PM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 221746
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY NOT QUITE A HURRICANE YET...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...310 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...94.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 01:26 AM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 230258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA
IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 02:25 AM
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It is hitting Texas in Brownsville and will weaken to a minor storm.
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Michael

Cruised more times than I can remember.

Good people sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Courage and perserverance have a magical talisman; before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish into the air.

Pick your company wisely! Hang around people who are going to help you become all God created you to be.
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 02:47 AM
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7 years ago right now I was sleeping in a hotel in Brownsville....

I remember because I still have my Mexican visa which was dated the 23rd. I was half-way through my drive from Wisconsin to Cancun.....

No fun for those people. I hope they took precautions. I read the levee situations are not the greatest there....
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 03:24 AM
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Actually, Dolly is slowing down a bit and expected to strengthen a bit more before hitting land.........They are now predicting landfall near the Texas/Mexico border about noon today.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230541
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...RAINBANDS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SOME
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old July 23rd, 2008, 08:08 AM
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 231056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
600 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD
APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old July 23rd, 2008, 02:16 PM
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
Posts: 9,496
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 231658
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR SOON.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING
THE COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE
CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 58 MPH...92 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1200 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old July 24th, 2008, 01:16 AM
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Admiral
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
Posts: 9,496
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 240235
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
ELSEWHERE ARE DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN BACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER
INLAND...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.5 N...98.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Old July 24th, 2008, 02:54 PM
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Admiral
 
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
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Default

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241738
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

...DOLLY WEAKENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST...VERY NEAR
THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER...ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...NORTHWEST OF
LAREDO TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.9 N...99.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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