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  #1 (permalink)  
Old October 13th, 2008, 01:53 PM
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Default Caribbean - Hurricane Omar




000
WTNT35 KNHC 131440
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.6 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
CURACAO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THIS IS A LARGE DEPRESSION AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old October 14th, 2008, 12:55 AM
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Default

000
WTNT35 KNHC 140250
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...550 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.6 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old October 14th, 2008, 01:57 PM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 141442
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRENGTHENS INTO
TROPICAL STORM OMAR...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...570 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...
110 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N...69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Lisa
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old October 15th, 2008, 01:01 AM
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
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Default

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150248
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST.
MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS...BY THEIR
RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN
ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...68.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
__________________
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Lisa
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old October 15th, 2008, 02:04 PM
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Admiral
 
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
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Default

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151759
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
__________________
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Lisa
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old October 16th, 2008, 01:10 AM
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Admiral
 
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Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
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Default

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160500
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS....

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM AST...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 75 MILES...115 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF OMAR WILL BE PASSING
BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS OMAR MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56
MPH...91 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...OMAR
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND
SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 100 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N...64.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 300 AM AST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA
__________________
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Lisa
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old October 16th, 2008, 01:36 PM
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Admiral
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Wisconsin....about 100 miles south of the Frozen Tundra and 70 miles east of Camp Randall
Posts: 9,496
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Default

000
WTNT35 KNHC 161452
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
290 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FROM ANTIGUA SOUTHWARD TO
MARTINIQUE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.2 N...61.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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Old October 17th, 2008, 01:10 AM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 170236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2008

...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...810 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 715 MILES...1150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...
110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.8 N...58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 17th, 2008, 03:13 PM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 171452
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1000 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL
DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.
THUS...OMAR COULD BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.9 N...55.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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Old October 18th, 2008, 01:05 AM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 180233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

...OMAR AGAIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT
705 MILES...1135 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1525 MILES...2455
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...
100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS MOVING OVER COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.5 N...52.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Old October 18th, 2008, 02:05 PM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 181433
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2008

...OMAR DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW...FORMER
TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 1365 MILES...2195 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR NO LONGER HAS ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...33.4 N...50.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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