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Old June 26th, 2010, 11:13 PM
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Default Atlantic - Alex



Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on June 26, 2010

...Alex moving inland over Belize...

summary of 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...information-----------------------------------------------location...17.7n 88.4wabout 20 mi...30 km NW of Belize Cityabout 205 mi...330 km se of Campeche Mexicomaximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/hrminimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
the tropical storm watch for the coast of Honduras has beendiscontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Belize and the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula ofMexico from Chetumal to Cancun
for storm information specific to your area...please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Alex waslocated near latitude 17.7 north...longitude 88.4 west. Alex ismoving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and thisgeneral motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.On the forecast track...Alex will move across the Yucatan Peninsulatonight and Sunday...and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico bySunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with highergusts. Weakening is forecast tonight and Sunday while Alex movesover the Yucatan Peninsula. Strengthening is forecast on Sundaynight and Monday after Alex moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 kmfrom the center...mainly to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observationsis 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------rainfall...Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of4 to 8 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...southern Mexico...northern Guatemala...much of Honduras and Belize through Mondaymorning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible overmountainous areas. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides.
Wind...tropical storm force winds are affecting portions of Belizeand the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning area. These winds willgradually decrease overnight as Alex weakens.

Next advisory-------------next intermediate advisory...100 am CDT.Next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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Old June 27th, 2010, 10:18 PM
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Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on June 27, 2010

...Alex moving into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico...

summary of 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.2n 90.9wabout 55 mi...90 km SSW of Campeche Mexicomaximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 300 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hrminimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Alexwas located near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 90.9 west. Thedepression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15km/hr. A motion generally toward the northwest is expected for thenext couple of days at a slower forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...andAlex is expected to become a tropical storm again on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------rainfall...Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of4 to 8 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...southern Mexico...andGuatemala through Monday afternoon. Isolated maximum amounts of 15inches are possible over mountainous areas. These rains couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...1000 PM CDT.
$$Forecaster Blake
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Old June 28th, 2010, 10:21 PM
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Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on June 28, 2010

...Alex moving little...

summary of 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...20.6n 91.6wabout 420 mi...675 km ESE of Tampico Mexicoabout 525 mi...845 km se of Brownsville Texasmaximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/hrpresent movement...stationaryminimum central pressure...990 mb...29.23 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* the coast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the RioGrande* the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz
a tropical storm watch in in effect for...* the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor
a Hurricane Warning could be required for a portion of the HurricaneWatch area tonight.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsideUnited States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Alex waslocated near latitude 20.6 north...longitude 91.6 west. Alex hasbeen nearly stationary over the past few hours...but is expected toresume a north-nortwestward motion near 5 mph...7 km/hr...tonight. An increase in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest areexpected on Tuesday...followed by a turn toward the west-northweston Wednesday. On the forecast track...Alex will move across thesouthern Gulf of Mexico and approach the coast within the HurricaneWatch area late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with highergusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...and Alex is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. A hurricanehunter plane is currently approaching the center of Alex.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 kmfrom the center. An automated station from the Mexican Navy at cayoarcas...located just to the southwest of the center of Alex...recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph...61 km/hr...anda gust of 45 mph...73 km/hr.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------rainfall...Alex is expected to produce additional rainfallaccumulations of 3 to 6 inches over southern Mexico and the YucatanPeninsula through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inchesare possible over mountainous areas. These rains could causelife-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Heavy rains could reach the coastal areas of tamaulipas and northernVeracruz of Mexico and south Texas Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to approach the coastwithin the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas on Wednesday...making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...1000 PM CDT.
$$Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
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Old June 30th, 2010, 02:00 AM
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Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on June 30, 2010

...Alex getting better organized as it moves slowly over the warmwaters of the western Gulf of Mexico...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...23.1n 94.8wabout 195 mi...315 km ESE of La Pesca Mexicoabout 255 mi...415 km se of Brownsville Texasmaximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hrpresent movement...W or 280 degrees at 5 mph...8 km/hrminimum central pressure...972 mb...28.70 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the RioGrande* the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz
a Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...* the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor* the coast of Mexico south of La Cruz to Cabo Rojo
for storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsideUnited States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Hurricane Alex was locatedby satellite and the Brownsville Doppler radar to be near latitude23.1 north...longitude 94.8 west. Alex has been moving erraticallyin a general westward direction near 5 mph...8 km/hr...and a slowwest or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 to48 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Alex will approachthe coast of northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late thisafternoon or early evening...and make landfall in the HurricaneWarning area late tonight or early Thursday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr... with highergusts. Alex is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecast prior tolandfall. Alex will begin to weaken after its center crosses thecoastline.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175miles...280 km. During the past couple of hours...NOAA buoy 42055located about 90 miles southeast of the center of Alex reported aone-minute sustained wind of 43 mph and a gust to 58 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb...28.70 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------rainfall...Alex is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 6 to 12 inches over portions of northeastern Mexico and southernTexas...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rainscould cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...especially in mountainous terrain. Rainbands associated with Alexare spreading onshore in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.
Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coastwithin the hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning areas later thismorning...making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels byas much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level along the immediate coastto the north of where the center makes landfall. The surge couldpenetrate inland as far as several miles from the shore with depthgenerally decreasing as the water moves inland. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Tornadoes...isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of extremesouthern Texas today.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Stewart
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Old July 1st, 2010, 12:30 AM
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Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on June 30, 2010

...Alex moving inland over northeastern Mexico...
summary of 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...information-----------------------------------------------location...24.3n 97.8wabout 35 mi...55 km N of La Pesca Mexicoabout 110 mi...180 km S of Brownsville Texasmaximum sustained winds...100 mph...160 km/hrpresent movement...W or 260 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/hrminimum central pressure...947 mb...27.96 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
the Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for thecoast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz
a Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...* the coast of Texas from the mouth of the Rio Grande to PortOconnor* the coast of Mexico south of La Cruz to Cabo Rojo
for storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsideUnited States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Alex was locatednear latitude 24.3 north...longitude 97.8 west. This position isjust inland of the coast of northeastern Mexico in the municipalityof Soto La Marina. Alex is moving toward the west near 10 mph...17km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next day orso. On this track...the center of Alex will move farther inlandover northeastern Mexico on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with highergusts. Alex is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Steady weakening will occur as the tropicalcyclone moves over land...and Alex is expected to dissipate overMexico within 1 to 2 days.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205miles...335 km.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum centralpressure of 947 mb...27.96 inches...just before landfall.

Hazards affecting land----------------------rainfall...Alex is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 6 to 12 inches over portions of northeastern Mexico and southernTexas...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rainscould cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...especially over mountainous terrain.
Wind...hurricane-force winds are spreading inland over a portion ofthe Hurricane Warning area over northeastern Mexico. These windswill decrease on Thursday.
Storm surge...a dangerous storm tide will raise water levels byas much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the immediate coastto the north of where the center has made landfall. The water couldpenetrate inland as far as several miles from the shore with depthgenerally decreasing as the storm tide moves inland. Near thecoast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructivewaves. The storm tide and waves will gradually diminish onThursday.
Tornadoes...isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of extremesouthern Texas overnight.

Next advisory-------------next intermediate advisory...100 am CDT.Next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Pasch/Berg
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Old July 1st, 2010, 10:11 PM
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Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on July 01, 2010

...Alex moving over central Mexico...large area of heavy rainoccurring...

summary of 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...23.2n 101.2wabout 220 mi...355 km W of La Pesca Mexicoabout 95 mi...155 km ENE of zacatecas Mexicomaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hrpresent movement...W or 270 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hrminimum central pressure...990 mb...29.23 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Alex waslocated near latitude 23.2 north...longitude 101.2 west. Alex ismoving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and this motion isexpected to continue until the system dissipates overnight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph...65km/hr...with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast duringthe next 24 hours and Alex is expected to dissipate over the highterrain of Mexico overnight.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------rainfall...Alex is expected to produce additional rainfallaccumulations of 3 to 6 inches across portions of northern andcentral Mexico. Isolated storm-total amounts of 20 inches arepossible over the higher elevations of northeastern Mexico. Theserains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides...especially in mountainous terrain.
Alex is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2to 4 inches over portions of southern Texas...with isolated maximumstorm-total amounts of around 12 inches. These rains could causelife-threatening flash floods.
Wind...tropical storm conditions are occurring in a small areainland near the center. These winds will gradually decrease today.
Tornadoes...isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of extremesouthern Texas through tonight.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...1000 PM CDT.
$$Forecaster Blake
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