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  #1 (permalink)  
Old August 26th, 2010, 01:28 AM
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Default Atlantic - Earl







Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 25, 2010

...Earl moving westward over the tropical Atlantic...

summary of 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...information-----------------------------------------------location...14.7n 33.6wabout 615 mi...990 km W of the southernmost Cape Verde Islandsmaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hrpresent movement...W or 275 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/hrminimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Earl waslocated near latitude 14.7 north...longitude 33.6 West. Earl ismoving toward the west near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion isexpected to continue during the next two days keeping the cycloneover the waters of the tropical Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Earlis forecast to become a hurricane by late Friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Brown
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Old August 28th, 2010, 01:55 AM
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Statement as of 2:00 am AST on August 28, 2010

...Earl continues quickly westward...

summary of 200 am AST...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...16.1n 48.6wabout 965 mi...1560 km E of the northern Leeward Islandsmaximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/hrpresent movement...W or 275 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/hrminimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* French Saint Martin and Saint barthelemy
this tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area within 72 hours.
Residents in the remainder of the northern Leeward Islands shouldmonitor the progress of Earl. Watches may be required for portionsof these islands as early as this morning.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am AST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Earl waslocated near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 48.6 West. Earl ismoving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr. This generalmotion is expected to continue over the weekend with a turn towardthe west-northwest. On the forecast track the center of Earl couldapproach the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with highergusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Earl could become ahurricane by Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster cangialosi/Brennan
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Old August 29th, 2010, 01:59 AM
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Statement as of 2:00 am AST on August 29, 2010

...Earl moving westward toward the Leeward Islands...

summary of 200 am AST...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...16.7n 56.2wabout 465 mi...750 km ESE of the northern Leeward Islandsmaximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/hrpresent movement...W or 280 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/hrminimum central pressure...989 mb...29.21 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Anguilla* Saint Martin and Saint barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* St. Maarten...Saba...St. Eustatius* British Virgin Islands* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* St. Maarten...Saba...St. Eustatius
a Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence oftropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outsidepreparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect lifeand property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am AST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Earl waslocated near latitude 16.7 north...longitude 56.2 West. Earl ismoving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and this generalmotion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forwardspeed later today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expectedSunday night and Monday. On the forecast track...the center ofEarl would pass near or over the northern Leeward Islands Sundaynight or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...andEarl is expected to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.21 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...hurricane conditions are expected over the northern LeewardIslands by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions may spread over theVirgin Islands and Puerto Rico Monday and Monday night.
Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels 1 to 3 feet abovenormal tide levels in the warning area...and be accompanied by largeand dangerous battering waves.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern Leeward Islands...withpossible maximum isolated amounts of 8 inches.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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Old August 30th, 2010, 01:27 AM
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Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 29, 2010

...Earl strengthens as it approaches the northernmost LeewardIslands...

summary of 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...information-----------------------------------------------location...17.9n 61.1wabout 50 mi...80 km ENE of Barbudaabout 130 mi...215 km E of St. Martinmaximum sustained winds...100 mph...160 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hrminimum central pressure...971 mb...28.67 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Anguilla* Saint Martin and Saint barthelemy* St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius* British Virgin Islands
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques
hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warningarea...in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparationsto protect life and property should have already been completed.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in thiscase within the next 24 to 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 17.9 north...longitude 61.1 West. Earl is movingtoward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and this generalmotion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turntoward the northwest is expected by early Tuesday. On the forecasttrack...the center of Earl will pass near or over the northernmostLeeward Islands late tonight and early Monday...and near theBritish Virgin Islands by late Monday.
Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate thatmaximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160km/hr...with higher gusts. Earl is a category two hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson wind scale. Further strengthening is forecast...andEarl is expected to become a major hurricane by late Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175miles...280 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Forcehurricane hunters is 971 mb...28.67 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm conditions are about to spread into portionsof the Hurricane Warning area...and hurricane conditions areexpected to spread into the Hurricane Warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the U.S.Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday...with hurricaneconditions possible Monday night.
Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2to 4 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas ofonshore wind within the Hurricane Warning area...and 1 to 3 feet inthe Tropical Storm Warning area. The surge will be accompanied bylarge and dangerous battering waves.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern Leeward Islands...withpossible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rain accumulationsof 4 to 6 inches are expected over Puerto Rico...with isolatedmaximum amounts of 12 inches possible over higher elevations. Theserains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory-------------next intermediate advisory...200 am AST.Next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain
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Old August 31st, 2010, 01:14 AM
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Default Earl now a CAT 4!

...Earl continues to move away from the Virgin Islands...



summary of 100 am AST...0500 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.9n 66.2wabout 105 mi...170 km N of San Juan Puerto Ricomaximum sustained winds...135 mph...215 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 295 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hrminimum central pressure...933 mb...27.55 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Puerto Rico...including the islands of Culebra and Vieques* U.S. Virgin Islands* British Virgin Islands* Turks and Caicos Islands
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* southeastern Bahamas
interests from the Carolinas northward to New England should monitorthe progress of Earl.
For storm information specific to Puerto Rico and the U.S. VirginIslands...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by the San Juan National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am AST...0500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 19.9 north...longitude 66.2 West. Earl is movingtoward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. This generalmotion is expected to continue this morning...followed by a turntoward the northwest later today. On the forecast track...thecenter of Earl will pass well north of Puerto Rico this morning...and pass east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday night andWednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with highergusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likelyover the next 24 to 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200miles...325 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reservehurricane hunter aircraft is 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm conditions will gradually subside over theBritish and U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. Tropical stormconditions will affect portions of Puerto Rico through this morning. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevatedterrain in Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions over Puerto Ricowill begin to subside later today. Tropical storm conditions areexpected to begin to spread into the Turks and Caicos Islands byTuesday afternoon.
Storm surge...storm surge flooding and waves will begin to diminishover the Tropical Storm Warning area today.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 4 to 8 inches over the northern Leeward Islands...the VirginIslands and Puerto Rico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of12 inches...especially over higher elevations. These rains couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory-------------next intermediate advisory...300 am AST.Next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Beven
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Old August 31st, 2010, 08:28 PM
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Earl is expected to visit here between friday and monday
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Old September 1st, 2010, 02:10 AM
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Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 01, 2010

...Powerful Hurricane Earl beginning to move away from the Turks andCaicos Islands...

summary of 200 am AST...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...23.5n 70.7wabout 145 mi...235 km NNE of Grand Turk islandabout 860 mi...1385 km SSE of Cape Hatteras North Carolinamaximum sustained winds...135 mph...215 km/hrpresent movement...NW or 315 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hrminimum central pressure...942 mb...27.82 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* north of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginiaborder...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Turks and Caicos Islands
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* southeastern Bahamas* Cape Fear to Surf City
a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.
Interests from Virginia northward to New England should monitorthe progress of Earl.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am AST...0600 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 23.5 north...longitude 70.7 West. Earl is movingtoward the northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. This general motion isexpected to continue on Wednesday with a gradual turn to thenorth-northwest thereafter. On the forecast track...the core ofthe hurricane will be passing well east and northeast of the Turksand Caicos Islands tonight and northeast of the Bahamas tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with highergusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Little change in strength is expectedthrough Wednesday.
Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward upto 90 miles...150 km...from the center...and tropical storm forcewinds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km. NOAA buoy 41046recently reported sustained winds of 72 mph...115 km/hr...withgusts to 85 mph...137 km/hr.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reservehurricane hunter aircraft is 942 mb...27.82 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------winds...tropical storm conditions are probably occurring in thevicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Weather conditions willlikely improve in these islands today.
Storm surge...above normal tides...accompanied by large anddangerous battering waves...are possible in the Turks and CaicosIslands and the southeastern Bahamas this morning.
Rainfall...rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches...with isolatedmaximum amounts of 6 inches are expected for the southeasternBahamas and for the Turk and Caicos Islands.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Beven
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Old September 2nd, 2010, 02:11 AM
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Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 02, 2010

...Category four Hurricane Earl moving quicklynorth-northwestward...

summary of 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...28.6n 74.4wabout 460 mi...740 km S of Cape Hatteras North Carolinamaximum sustained winds...140 mph...220 km/hrpresent movement...NNW or 330 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/hrminimum central pressure...930 mb...27.46 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Bogue Inlet North Carolina northeastward to the NorthCarolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarlesounds.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape HenlopenDelaware.* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts...including MarthasVineyard and Nantucket.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet North Carolina.* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook NewJersey...including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and theChesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for...* Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole Massachusetts...includingBlock Island and Long Island Sound.* North of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack RiverMassachusetts.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence oftropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outsidepreparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect lifeand property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.
Interests in northern New England and southeastern Canada shouldmonitor the progress of Earl.
For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 28.6 north...longitude 74.4 West. Earl is movingtoward the north-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. This motion isexpected to continue this morning with a turn to the north latertoday. On the forecast track...the core of the hurricane willapproach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday...and move nearor over the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday night. Thecenter is expected to pass near or offshore of the DelmarvaPeninsula on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with highergusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likelytonight and Thursday...but a gradual weakening trend is anticipatedthereafter.
Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward upto 90 miles...150 km...from the center...and tropical storm forcewinds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km.
The minimum central pressure just extrapolated by an Air ForceReserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 930 mb...27.46 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------winds...tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the NorthCarolina coast within the warning area by this afternoon withhurricane force winds occurring by Thursday night. Tropical stormforce winds will likely reach the coast from Virginia northward toNew Jersey by late Thursday night or early Friday.
Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by asmuch as 3 to 5 feet above ground level within the Hurricane Warningarea and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Elsewhere within the TropicalStorm Warning area...storm surge will raise water levels by as muchas 1 to 3 feet above ground level. Near the coast...the surge willbe accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Rainfall...accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolatedmaximum amounts of 6 inches...are expected over portions of easternNorth Carolina including the Outer Banks. Accumulations of 1 to 2inches are possible farther to the north along the immediatemid-Atlantic coast.
Surf...large swells from Earl will continue to affect the Bahamasand the East Coast of the United States through Friday. Theseswells will likely cause dangerous surf conditions and ripcurrents.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am EDT.
$$Forecaster Beven
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Old September 2nd, 2010, 02:15 AM
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Default US Coastal Watches and Warnings

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Old September 4th, 2010, 02:25 AM
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Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 04, 2010

...Earl accelerating to the northeast...expected to bring rain and strong winds to portions of Nova Scotia...

summary of 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...40.6n 68.3wabout 105 mi...165 km ESE of Nantucket Massachusettsabout 240 mi...390 km SW of Cape Sable Nova Scotiamaximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/hrpresent movement...NE or 50 degrees at 30 mph...48 km/hrminimum central pressure...960 mb...28.35 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum westward to Digby
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Watch Hill Rhode Island eastward around Cape Cod to HullMassachusetts...including Marthas Vineyard...Nantucket Island...and Block Island* Stonington Maine to Eastport Maine* the entire coast of Nova Scotia* Prince Edward Island* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border eastward to fortLawrence...and from shediac to tidnish* the Magdalen islands
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* point escuminac to shediac New Brunswick
for storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Earl waslocated was loctaed by satellite and Doppler radar to be nearlatitude 40.6 north...longitude 68.3 West. Earl is moving towardthe northeast near 30 mph...48 km/hr...and a general northeastwardmotion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected overthe next day or so. On the forecast track...the center of Earl willreach the coast of Nova Scotia by early afternoon today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next48 hours.
Earl is a large tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds extendoutward up to 205 miles...335 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------winds...tropical storm conditions will gradually subside overeastern Massachusetts this morning. Tropical storm conditions willreach the warning area in downeast Maine later this morning...andspread into the warning area in the Canadian Maritimes by earlyafternoon.
Storm surge...water levels could rise by as much as 1 to 3 feetabove ground level around Cape Cod...especially in Cape Cod Bay.Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large anddestructive waves.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce 1 to 3 inch rainfallaccumulations over eastern New England...with isolated maximumamounts of 5 inches possible.
Surf...large swells from Earl will continue to affect the East Coastof the United States from New Jersey northward through today.These swells will likely cause dangerous surf conditions and ripcurrents.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...500 am EDT.
$$Forecaster Stewart
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