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Old September 19th, 2006, 01:54 PM
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Default Weather On Ship Sailing To and From Hawaii Cruise

Need help! We are trying to book the Princess Cruise to Hawaii with friends, but some are concerned about the weather on sea days, on ship, for the trip over to the island (5 days) and back. We would be sailing in late April or Early May. Has anyone travelled this trip in those months?
Thanks for any help you can give.
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Old September 19th, 2006, 02:21 PM
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We went on the Island in November for Thanksgiving. About a day out, the seas were a little rough, but not a big deal.

On the way back, it was just glass.
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Old September 20th, 2006, 12:06 PM
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You are at mercy of the weather. There's no way to predict what the activity of the ocean is at that time. But you should be fine. Just be prepared & bring something for seasickness - just in case.
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Old September 20th, 2006, 03:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassandra
You are at mercy of the weather. There's no way to predict what the activity of the ocean is at that time. But you should be fine. Just be prepared & bring something for seasickness - just in case.
Not true.

Scientist have measured the water temps and currents for years. Based on predictive models, they can "forecast" based on past data and patterns.

Although they cannot predict beyond about 90 days with precise accuracy, they have already made forward statements on what the weather will be like world-wide well into 2007.

How do they know "the hurricane" season for the US? Based on the above. How can they predict how many "named" storms we will see during this period? Based on the above.

Now exactly when a storm will form and track cannot be done that far in advance, but you know they are coming.

One example ... http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/...home-headlines

And another ... http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/09/1...eut/index.html
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Old September 20th, 2006, 10:21 PM
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Irish Shark,

Scientist have measured the water temps and currents for years. Based on predictive models, they can "forecast" based on past data and patterns.

Although they cannot predict beyond about 90 days with precise accuracy, they have already made forward statements on what the weather will be like world-wide well into 2007.

How do they know "the hurricane" season for the US? Based on the above. How can they predict how many "named" storms we will see during this period? Based on the above.

Now exactly when a storm will form and track cannot be done that far in advance, but you know they are coming.


Well, sort of but not really. The "predictions" of water temperatures, etc., are very imprecise and prone to error, and there are fundamtenal limitations that preculde significant improvement without phenomenal expense. Note that the forecasts of hurricanes in "The Atlantic" (northern hemisphere, and including the Caribbean) not only are often wrong, but also say nothing about where hurricanes might actually strike. Three months ago, the prognosticators predicted a very active season, like last year. A couple weeks ago, they adjusted the forecast downward considerably because the early part of the season was far less accurate than predicted. As it turns out, the named storms that hit the U. S. did so predominantly as tropical storms, while a couple serious huricanes have gone harmlessly north into the mid-Atlantic before getting close enough to threaten either the Caribbean islands or North America (but the Azores just got pounded...).

There has been signficant improvement in the models now used to forecast actual tracks and strengthening/weakening of tropical stroms and hurricanes, but those models are reliable for only 3-4 days.

Norm.
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Old September 21st, 2006, 03:23 PM
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Did you read the links?

I also said:
Now exactly when a storm will form and track cannot be done that far in advance, but you know they are coming.
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Old October 9th, 2006, 03:52 PM
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Just returned from the Island princess trip to Hawaii. Arrived back in L.A. on Oct. 6th. First day and a half at sea (9/21 and 9/22) were rough. Large numbers of people were having problems with seasickness. Apparently there was a storm in the North Pacific causing big waves and the wind was REALLY blowing. By the end of day 2 everything was fine. The air temperature was cool first two days out, 9/21 and 9/22, and again on the return trip for the last 2 days, 10/5 and 10/6. Other than that the weather was fine - even though you might get clouds and some showers in the islands it is still warm so not a big deal.
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Old October 10th, 2006, 06:46 PM
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Irish - PLEASE send those people & have them become the weather people for CNN & MSNBC on the TV stations. For the last 3 years, we were "predicted" to have major snowstorms at certain times here on the East Coast.

What happened? Instead of 3 feet, we got 2 inches. Blew up the snow to put everyone in Blizzard modes & you get a dusting.

Prediction of the weather? Way off. That includes T-storms as well. I think they have faulty doplers.
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Old October 10th, 2006, 07:03 PM
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Cassandra, that is why they call it a "prediction".

Basesd on scientific data, they predict what the models show. However, things are in a state of flux and the exact results don't match the prediction.

Overall, I think that they are right more than they are wrong, Just my opinion.
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Old October 10th, 2006, 07:30 PM
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Irish Shark,

Basesd on scientific data, they predict what the models show. However, things are in a state of flux and the exact results don't match the prediction.

Overall, I think that they are right more than they are wrong, Just my opinion.


Weather forecasting is as much art as science. There are two difficulties.

>> 1. The density of weather stations is not sufficient to produce a map of the atmosphere at sufficient resolution to capture all of the nuances in the present state of the atmospehre.

>> 2. The mathematical formulation of atmospheric dynamics does not permit solution by analytical methods. Thus, it's necessary to use numerical methods, which are inherently computationally demanding, in conjunction various combinaitons of simplifying assumptions that allow the most powerful supercomputers available today to compute a forecast from the latest observations in no more than a couple hours rather than in several days.

Each combination of simplifying assumptions yields a different model, with its unique strengths and weaknesses. By way of example, one model forecasts the movements of storm systems very well but does not forecast whether those systems will strengthen or weaken, while another model forecasts strengthening and weakening very well but forecasts movement of storms much less accurately. The meteorologist at the local radio or television station has the job of reading between the lines -- using one model to figure out where the storm will be, the other to figure out how strong it will be, and then inferring where and how much precipitation actually will fall, from what direction and how strongly the wind will blow, and what the temperatures are likely to be over the course of several days. Having done both, I can assure you that rocket science is much easier!

Norm.
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