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Old September 13th, 2008, 07:44 AM
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 131056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
KINGWOOD TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...AND ABOUT
80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 91 MPH...146 KM/HR...WHILE HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 82
MPH...131 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
961.1 MB...28.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...30.1 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Lisa
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