Thread: Atlantic - Earl
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Old August 31st, 2010, 01:14 AM
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Default Earl now a CAT 4!

...Earl continues to move away from the Virgin Islands...



summary of 100 am AST...0500 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.9n 66.2wabout 105 mi...170 km N of San Juan Puerto Ricomaximum sustained winds...135 mph...215 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 295 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hrminimum central pressure...933 mb...27.55 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Puerto Rico...including the islands of Culebra and Vieques* U.S. Virgin Islands* British Virgin Islands* Turks and Caicos Islands
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* southeastern Bahamas
interests from the Carolinas northward to New England should monitorthe progress of Earl.
For storm information specific to Puerto Rico and the U.S. VirginIslands...including possible inland watches and warnings...pleasemonitor products issued by the San Juan National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am AST...0500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 19.9 north...longitude 66.2 West. Earl is movingtoward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. This generalmotion is expected to continue this morning...followed by a turntoward the northwest later today. On the forecast track...thecenter of Earl will pass well north of Puerto Rico this morning...and pass east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday night andWednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with highergusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likelyover the next 24 to 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200miles...325 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reservehurricane hunter aircraft is 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm conditions will gradually subside over theBritish and U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. Tropical stormconditions will affect portions of Puerto Rico through this morning. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevatedterrain in Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions over Puerto Ricowill begin to subside later today. Tropical storm conditions areexpected to begin to spread into the Turks and Caicos Islands byTuesday afternoon.
Storm surge...storm surge flooding and waves will begin to diminishover the Tropical Storm Warning area today.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 4 to 8 inches over the northern Leeward Islands...the VirginIslands and Puerto Rico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of12 inches...especially over higher elevations. These rains couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory-------------next intermediate advisory...300 am AST.Next complete advisory...500 am AST.
$$Forecaster Beven
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