I just booked a 5 day coastal for $199. I think the issue is demand. If your June cruise is Alaska for instance, the demand is very high for Alaskan cruises. I'm sure there is not nearly as much demand for a five night west coastal cruise.
Fuel will certainly play into the equation. Remember $200,000 divided by 2000 cruisers is about $100 p.p.
Well it sure looks like it is having an effect on Airline pricing. Last week flights from Sacramento to Ft. Lauderdale was running $212.00 dollars, this week they are running around $328.00, I knew I should have booked last week (yikes).
I recently read that cruise bookings are soft because of the economy, terrorism, fear of flying in connection with terrorism, and an impending war. As a result, the cruiselines are not discounting fares as far ahead of a sailing as they normally would. Many lines appear to be waiting until two or three weeks prior to a cruise before publishing their steeply discounted fares.
I can't swear to the accuracy or veracity of what I read, but it makes sense.
And if the cruise lines continue to wait til 2-3 weeks out they will lose a significant portion of the people willing to travel due to arrangements for time off work and airline pricing. I can book 2 weeks out for work, but can not afford the air without at least a 2 week advance purchase. Maybe the cruise lines are agreeable to a 4-12 hour drive radius from the ports. However, I live in the mid-west. If they want my business they better do better. There are plenty of other options out there.