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Old June 19th, 2010, 05:27 PM
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Default Eastern Pacific - Tropical Storm Cecelia




WTPZ33 KNHC 192035
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...BLAS CONTINUES WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. BLAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Old June 20th, 2010, 10:52 PM
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...Celia slowly strengthening as it moves away from Mexico...



summary of 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...11.6n 100.9wabout 370 mi...600 km S of Acapulco Mexicomaximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hrpresent movement...W or 270 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/hrminimum central pressure...986 mb...29.12 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Celia was locatednear latitude 11.6 north...longitude 100.9 west. Celia is movingtoward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this general motion isexpected to continue for the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Celia is a category one hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening isforecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80miles...130 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb...29.12 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none

next advisory-------------next complete advisory...200 am PDT.
$$Forecaster Stewart
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Old June 22nd, 2010, 08:45 PM
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...Celia weakens slightly...



summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...11.8n 106.3wabout 515 mi...830 km SSW of Manzanillo Mexicomaximum sustained winds...100 mph...160 km/hrpresent movement...W or 275 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hrminimum central pressure...972 mb...28.70 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...the center of Hurricane Celia was locatednear latitude 11.8 north...longitude 106.3 west. Celia is movingtoward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A motion between west andwest-northwest is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with highergusts. Celia is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpsonhurricane wind scale. Some strengthening is forecast during thenext 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90miles...150 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb...28.70 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...800 PM PDT.
$$Forecaster Brown
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Old June 23rd, 2010, 11:52 PM
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...Celia weakens...



summary of 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...12.4n 111.5wabout 735 mi...1180 km S of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...105 mph...165 km/hrpresent movement...W or 280 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hrminimum central pressure...971 mb...28.67 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Hurricane Celia was locatednear latitude 12.4 north...longitude 111.5 west. Celia is movingtoward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr...but a turn toward thewest-northwest is expected during the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph...165km/hr...with higher gusts. Celia is a category two hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Some re-intensification is possibleduring the next day or so...followed by gradual weakening.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110miles...175 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb...28.67 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...200 am PDT.
$$Forecaster Kimberlain
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Old June 24th, 2010, 03:10 PM
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...Celia strengthens to a major hurricane again ...



summary of 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...12.5n 113.9wabout 765 mi...1230 km SSW of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...115 mph...185 km/hrpresent movement...W or 275 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hrminimum central pressure...962 mb...28.41 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Celia was locatednear latitude 12.5 north...longitude 113.9 west. Celia is movingtoward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A turn toward thewest-northwest is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185km/hr...with higher gusts. Celia is a category three hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additionalstrengthening is possible today...followed by gradual weakening onFriday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb...28.41 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...200 PM PDT.
$$Forecaster cangialosi/Pasch
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Old June 25th, 2010, 06:35 PM
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...Celia weakens further...but still a category four hurricane...



summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...14.2n 119.0wabout 845 mi...1360 km SW of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...135 mph...215 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/hrminimum central pressure...948 mb...27.99 inches

Watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...the center of Hurricane Celia was locatednear latitude 14.2 north...longitude 119.0 west. Celia is movingtoward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this generalmotion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speedduring the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 135 mph...215km/hr...with higher gusts. Celia is a category four hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Further weakening isexpected during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles...65 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125miles...205 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...800 PM PDT.
$$Forecaster Roberts/Avila
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Old June 26th, 2010, 11:08 PM
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Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on June 26, 2010

...Celia weakens to a tropical storm...

summary of 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...15.8n 122.7wabout 965 mi...1555 km WSW of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/hrpresent movement...W or 280 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/hrminimum central pressure...994 mb...29.35 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Celia waslocated near latitude 15.8 north...longitude 122.7 west. Celia ismoving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this generalmotion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speedover the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected...and Celiawill likely become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnantlow on Monday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...200 am PDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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Old June 27th, 2010, 10:15 PM
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Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 27, 2010

...Celia barely a tropical storm...
summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...15.7n 124.0wabout 1045 mi...1680 km WSW of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hrpresent movement...WSW or 255 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/hrminimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Celia waslocated near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 124.0 west. Celia ismoving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph...7 km/hr. Celia isexpected to slow down and become nearly stationary tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with highergusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours...andCelia is expected to decay into a remnant low by Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...800 PM PDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan
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Old June 28th, 2010, 10:18 PM
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Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 28, 2010

...Celia weakens to a depression...expected to become a remnant lowtonight....

summary of 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...15.1n 123.8wabout 1055 mi...1700 km WSW of the southern tip of Baja Californiamaximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hrpresent movement...E or 90 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/hrminimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

watches and warnings--------------------there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Celiawas located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 123.8 west. Thedepression is moving toward the east near 2 mph...4 km/hr...and thisgeneral motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph...55km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast andCelia is likely to decay into a remnant low this evening or earlytomorrow.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------none.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...800 PM PDT.
$$Forecaster Blake
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