CruiseMates Cruise Community and Forums

CruiseMates Cruise Community and Forums (http://www.cruisemates.com/forum/)
-   Hurricane Watch (http://www.cruisemates.com/forum/hurricane-watch/)
-   -   Caribbean - Karl (http://www.cruisemates.com/forum/hurricane-watch/376879-caribbean-karl.html)

Lisa September 15th, 2010 03:08 AM

Caribbean - Karl
 
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/dat...s/at201013.gif


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/dat...201013_sat.jpg


Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 15, 2010

...Karl headed for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...18.6n 86.0wabout 150 mi...245 km E of Chetumal Mexicomaximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/hrminimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal at theMexico/Belize border northward to Cabo Catoche
a tropical storm watch in in effect for...* the coast of northern Belize from Belize City to the Mexico/Belizeborder
a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within 24hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...in this case within 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area.....Please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Karl waslocated near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 86.0 west. Karl ismoving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. Thisgeneral motion is expected to continue with some decrease inforward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecasttrack...the center of Karl will move over the Yucatan Peninsulalater today...and move into the southwestern Gulf of MexicoWednesday night or Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with highergusts. Strengthening is possible before the center of Karl reachesthe Yucatan Peninsula...with weakening expected after landfall.Restrengthening is forecast on Thursday after Karl moves over thesouthwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach thecoast within the warning area later this morning.
Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce some coastalflooding near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large anddamaging waves.
Rainfall...Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3to 5 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...and northernGuatemala...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Pasch

Lisa September 16th, 2010 02:47 AM

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 16, 2010

...Karl moving over the Bay of Campeche...expected to strengthen...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.7n 91.2wabout 50 mi...75 km WSW of Campeche Mexicoabout 410 mi...660 km ESE of Tuxpan Mexicomaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hrpresent movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/hrminimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico from La Cruz southward to barra de nautla
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...* the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Ciudad del Carmennorthward to Celestun
a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours beforethe anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds...Conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area...in this case within 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Karl waslocated near latitude 19.7 north...longitude 91.2 west. Karl ismoving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A generalwestward or west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease inforward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On theforecast track...Karl will move across the southern Gulf of Mexicoand approach the coast of the state of Veracruz within theHurricane Watch area by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with highergusts. The highest winds are occurring near the center over waterwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Strengthening is expected over thenext couple of days...and Karl is forecast to become a hurricane byFriday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...Mainly to the west of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------wind...tropical storm force winds in gusts are expected tooccur over a small area of the northwestern Yucatan Peninsulaovernight...but should gradually decrease this morning. Within theHurricane Watch area...tropical storm conditions are possible byearly Friday...with hurricane conditions possible by late Friday.
Rainfall...Karl is expected to produce additional rainfallaccumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the western portion of theYucatan Peninsula...and portions of the state of Tabasco andnorthern Guatemala...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected along thecoast of Mexico within the Hurricane Watch area...with isolatedamounts of 15 inches possible in the mountains. These rains couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan

Lisa September 17th, 2010 02:26 AM

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 17, 2010

...Karl a little stronger...tropical storm conditions nearing thecoast in the Hurricane Warning area...

summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...19.7n 94.8wabout 95 mi...155 km ENE of Veracruz Mexicoabout 190 mi...305 km ESE of Tuxpan Mexicomaximum sustained winds...105 mph...165 km/hrpresent movement...W or 270 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hrminimum central pressure...967 mb...28.56 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
none.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz* the coast of Mexico south of Veracruz to Punta el Lagarto
for storm information specific to your area...please monitorproducts issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Karl was locatednear latitude 19.7 north...longitude 94.8 west. Karl is movingtoward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion isexpected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On theforecast track...the core of hurricane will make landfall on thecoast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area late Friday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicatethat maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph... 165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Karl is a category two hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengtheningis expected...and Karl could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105miles...165 km. A joint U.S. EPA and Mexican government observingstation on sacrifice island near Veracruz recently reported asustained wind of 36 mph...58 km/hr...and a gust to 41 mph...66km/hr.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Forcehurricane hunter aircraft was 967 mb...28.56 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels byas much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the immediatecoast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large anddestructive waves.
Wind...within the Hurricane Warning area...tropical storm conditionsare expected to begin in the next few hours...with hurricaneconditions expected to begin during the day on Friday.
Rainfall...Karl is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5to 10 inches across the central and southern Mexican Gulf Coastregion...with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in theinterior mountains. These rains could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mud slides.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Brennan

Lisa September 18th, 2010 02:51 AM

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 17, 2010

...Karl expected to dissipate soon over the high mountains ofsouthern Mexico...
summary of 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...information-----------------------------------------------location...18.6n 97.4wabout 55 mi...85 km ESE of Puebla Mexicomaximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hrpresent movement...WSW or 250 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/hrminimum central pressure...1000 mb...29.53 inches

watches and warnings--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Karlwas located inland Mexico near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 97.4west. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 7mph...11 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next6 to 12 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph...55km/hr...with higher gusts. Karl is forecast to dissipate during thenext 6 to 12 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Hazards affecting land----------------------
rainfall...Karl is expected to produce additional rainfallaccumulations of 2 to 5 inches across portions of southernMexico...with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in themountains. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floodsand mud slides.
Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...400 am CDT.
$$Forecaster Avila


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:16 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Friendly URLs by vBSEO 3.6.1